A tale of the unexpected – Leeds stun City with xG first in the Premier League

Leeds United’s shock win over Manchester City on Saturday was Marcelo Bielsa’s first over Pep Guardiola, and it was achieved through a remarkable statistical anomaly.

Bielsa’s side prevailed 2-1 at the Etihad Stadium through Stuart Dallas’ double, sandwiched by Ferran Torres’ close-range strike, despite spending most of the game on the back foot, with captain Liam Cooper sent off before half-time.

City racked up 29 shots to Leeds’ two, but it was the visitors who proved the more clinical as they scored from unlikely positions on both occasions.

Indeed, Leeds’ expected goals (xG) total for the game was 0.1 compared to 2.0 for City.

Dallas’ 91st-minute winner saw Leeds become the first team since Opta began tracking xG for the Premier League in 2010-11 to win a game by scoring twice with an xG of 0.1.

Tottenham scored twice with an xG of 0.1 against City in August 2019, but that contest ended in a draw.