Can Ireland upset France?

The Republic of Ireland take on France later today in the first leg of their battle to see who will earn the right to travel to South Africa in the summer and take their place at the top table.

History

On paper, the Irish shouldn’t have a chance but history has shown that you should never right off the Irish team.

With the possible exception of Portugal, France are the toughest team Ireland could have drawn in the play-offs, but FIFA’s late and controversial decision to seed the teams meant that they knew it would be tough whoever they played.

Overawed

One thing you can be sure of is that Ireland won’t be overawed by or frightened of France. Their manager Giovanni Trapattoni has ‘been there and done that’ and the players are experienced professionals with great fighting qualities and no little ability.

France, world cup winners in 1998, are currently ranked ninth in the world. Despite a general feeling that they are not the team they were and that manager Raymond Domenech hasn’t got what it takes, they have actually only lost once in their qualifying group and finished just one point behind Serbia.

Confidence

Ireland finished second in their group to Italy and their performance in drawing 2-2 with the group winners at Croke Park and so nearly winning, will give them a great deal of confidence going into this game. Despite that, they are ranked thirty-fourth in the world, twenty-five places below their opponents, and know that they have an almighty task on their hands.

The most recent meetings between the teams show the difference in the footballing stature of the two countries. In the 2006 world cup qualifying campaign the sides drew 0-0 in Paris and France won 1-0 in Dublin. Not much between them then you may think. In those games, yes, but Ireland didn’t qualify for the finals and France went on to finish runners-up, only on penalties. There really is a huge gulf.

Drew

The boys in green didn’t lose a game in qualification but they drew six of their ten. In the previous eighteen world cup tournaments Ireland have entered sixteen of them and failed to qualify for the finals in thirteen of those. They have made it to the second round twice and in 1990 they reached the quarter-finals, interestingly without winning a game, before losing to Italy.

In thirteen European championships, 1988 remains the only time Ireland have qualified. They didn’t get past the first round despite beating England.

The fact is that Ireland have no real pedigree in the big tournaments.

Qualified

France, on the other hand, have qualified for twelve of the eighteen world cup final tournaments. They have reached the quarter-final once, finished third twice, been runners-up once and, of course, won the whole thing once.

They have qualified for the finals of the European championships seven times and have reached the quarter-finals once, the semi-finals twice and won the tournament twice.

France have a really good football pedigree.

Chance

So there we have it. On paper the Irish have no chance. However, I will be very surprised if they are out of this tie after today’s first leg. In fact, I think they might just take a narrow lead to Paris on Wednesday. I fancy them to hold that lead and go through at the expense of France.

Stranger things have happened. Not many, admittedly, but I’m sure some must have done!