England v United States: Will Hayes enjoy a happy homecoming?

US soccer has been the standard bearer for Women’s football long before it reached the level of popularity it has today.

The United States are the most successful nation of all time, with four World Cups to their name, and on Saturday they travel to the home of football, a sold-out Wembley, to face European champions England.

The Lionesses have been on their own journey over the last few years to close the gap to the world’s elite. Sarina Wiegman took over in 2021 and brought the winning mentality England needed. They were crowned European champions in 2022 and then finished as runners-up in last year’s World Cup.

The USWNT have been through a period of transition since Jill Ellis left after leading them to their fourth World Cup. This ended a dynasty of eight years, when the US had been on top of the world, winning back-to-back tournaments in 2015 and 2019.

Enter Vlatko Andonovski, who replaced Ellis. He was only able to lead this iconic team, with the likes of Megan Rapinoe and Alex Morgan, to Olympic bronze in 2021. USA then went on in 2023 to have their worst-ever performance in a World Cup, knocked out in the round of 16 by Sweden in a penalty shoot-out.

That led to the appointment of Emma Hayes, and a new era.

Hayes won Olympic gold in her first tournament in charge, and the former Chelsea boss – a serial winner with seven Women’s Super League titles to her name – is now back home in London, aiming to get one over on her home nation.

The 48-year-old has brought the monster mentality she instilled at Chelsea, and Wiegman’s Lionesses will have to be at their very best.

Once a winner, always a winner

The Hayes revolution could hardly have started any better.

USA have won 12 of their 13 matches in all competitions under Hayes (D1); the only managers to win as many as 13 of their first 14 games in charge of the USWNT are Andonovski (14 in 2021) and Pia Sundhage (13 in 2008).

With four warm-up games ahead of the Paris Olympics, Hayes did not have long to find her feet. Making huge section choices such as dropping Morgan (with 123 goals and 53 assists on the international stage), she opted for younger talent who could rotate in multiple positions, and her bold choices paid off.

Coined “the Triple Espresso”, USA’s attacking trio of Trinity Rodman, Sophia Smith and Mallory Swanson announced themselves as the next superstars of the national team.

The trio started all six of USA’s Olympic matches, scoring 10 goals between them – Swanson led the way with four, while Rodman and Swanson finished with three apiece.

Swanson has been directly involved in more goals for the USA since Hayes’ first game in charge in June (10), while she is also the leading assister (four) and joint-top scorer in that period (six – level with Smith).

Chicago Red Stars forward Swanson finished with the highest xG (3.8) of any player at the Olympics, though she finished behind Marie-Antoinette Katoto in the scoring charts.

Of the tournament’s leading six goalscorers, Swanson shared the second-best shot conversion rate (23.5%), along with Zambia’s Barbra Banda, who netted four goals from just 0.8 xG, behind Katoto (41.7%).

Smith, meanwhile, had a tournament-leading 27 shots, six more than second-best Spain’s Salma Paralluelo (21), while Rodman ranked third on 19, and Swanson joint-fifth on 17. Smith created 10 chances, but her 1.96 xA was the highest at the Paris Games.

While Hayes seems to have found the recipe for success, the “Triple Espresso” threat will not face England this week.

Hayes has decided to rest her dynamic trio in order to ensure they are not at risk of injury after a gruelling season both internationally and domestically.

Alyssa Thompson will be waiting in the wings, however, to show she has what it takes to be a threat.

In October, Thompson found the net against Iceland in a 3-1 victory. The 19-year-old has recorded five goals and seven assists for Angel City this season, so is in fine form.

Hayes’ team won all six of their Olympic matches en route to clinching gold. They were the tournament’s top scorers (12 goals), though Spain (14) recorded a slightly higher xG than USA’s 13.9.

USA ranked second for shots (104) – an average of 17.3 per match – though that was some way behind Spain’s 141 (23.5 per game). They were not overly focused on possession, with Hayes’ team having 63.9% of the ball, which ranked below France (64%) and Spain (75.9%).

They conceded just twice, with only Canada – who played two games fewer – matching that.

The end of a shot-stopping era

While in the outfield positions, Hayes went with youth, she relied on experience in goal. Alyssa Naeher conceded just twice at the Olympics, keeping a competition-leading four clean sheets.

The American shot stopper made 22 saves and recorded a 91.7 save percentage, the highest of any goalkeeper to play at least 90 minutes at the Games. Her 3.18 goals prevented figure was the third highest at the tournament.

At the 2023 World Cup, she kept three clean sheets, which trailed only Australia’s Mackenzie Arnold (four), while no goalkeeper conceded fewer goals than Naeher (one), though she did only face two shots on target across her four appearances at the competition.

Naeher has made 11 World Cup appearances in total. She has the best save percentage (76.5) of any United States goalkeeper on record in the tournament. She has conceded only four World Cup goals.

This week, Naeher announced she would be retiring after more than a decade of representing her country. She is the only US goalkeeper to earn a clean sheet in both a World Cup and an Olympic final.

This leaves Hayes with a big decision as to who to replace her with, although the choice may not be so difficult.

Manchester United’s Phallon Tullis-Joyce has been making her mark after England number one Mary Earps left for pastures new in Paris.

Tullis-Joyce has more than stepped up to the mark. She has conceded only three goals and has five clean sheets so far this term in the WSL.

Indeed, her Tullis-Joyce’s 87.5% save ratio from shots inside the box is second only to Manchester City’s Hannah Hampton (93.3%), while she has stopped all six shots that have come her way from outside of the area. She has the highest overperformance in the league when it comes to goals prevented (5.9).

All in all, the 28-year-old would seem the ideal natural successor, but for now, Naeher will enjoy her farewell lap.

Wiegman struggling to make Lionesses roar

England have played 10 matches in all competitions (friendlies included) in 2024. Their year started with a 7-2 thrashing of Austria, followed up by a 5-1 defeat of Italy in February.

But the Lionesses have failed to win their first game of an international break in three of the last four attempts (W1 D1 L2), having lost none and won 13 of their first 16 such matches under Wiegman (D3).

The Lionesses have particularly come unstuck against elite opponents. They were held to a 1-1 draw by Sweden in Euros qualifying before they lost 2-1 to France. England did bounce back to beat the French side by the same scoreline, though.

England have lost two of their last four home games, more defeats than they suffered across their previous 22 matches on home soil.

All about Saturday. pic.twitter.com/kbaQ0gJm5i

— Lionesses (@Lionesses) November 27, 2024

It has been a mixed bag across their last three games – they drew 0-0 with Sweden, lost 4-3 to Germany and then beat South Africa 2-1. In that defeat to Germany, England managed 2.4 expected goals (xG) – the same total as Germany accumulated.

England only had nine shots, meaning each of their attempts averaged out at 0.26 xG. However, they allowed Germany to have eight attempts on target, while nine of their 12 shots came from inside the Lionesses’ box.

And those defensive issues were also present in the victory over South Africa, who registered 1.2 xG, from only nine shots. England, on the other hand, were hardly free-flowing in attack either, accumulating 0.8 xG, though they did have 74 final-third entries compared to South Africa’s 26.

Creating chances and keeping teams out have been an issue, and Wiegman will need her squad to dig deep if she is to get the better of Hayes, who knows so many of the England squad and their strengths and weaknesses.

Leaders from the pack?

With the likes of Lauren Hemp and Ella Toone absent, Wiegman will be looking to some of her young stars to step forward. Hemp will be a huge loss, and has been in sensational form this season.

Hemp has averaged 1.1 goal contributions per 90 for Man City this term in the WSL. She has scored twice, providing five assists – no player has provided as many assists in the competition.

However, Man United’s Grace Clinton is one of the possible players who may step up to the mark. She has scored in two of her four England appearances, including last time out against South Africa. Should she score in back-to-back outings, she would be the youngest to do so (21 years, 244 days) for the Lionesses since Jordan Nobbs in October 2013 (20y 327d).

Laura Blindkilde Brown has received her maiden call-up. She has only started one WSL game for Manchester City this season, making three appearances in total. However, she has done enough to impress Wiegman and per 90, she has contested 7.8 duels, winning 2.8 per game, while averaging 4.3 passes into the final third.

Alongside the newer girls, Wiegman needs her established stars to show up, which has not always been the case in recent matches. Across England’s last two games, Georgia Stanway has created just one chance, while Keira Walsh has been unable to provide any goalscoring opportunities for her team-mates.

There is a question who could be number one, with Earps and Hampton the candidates.

Since Wiegman’s first game in charge of England in September 2021, Earps has a save percentage of 74% for the Lionesses and has conceded 0.6 goals per game (43 apps), compared to Hampton’s rates of 67% and 1.1 goals conceded per game (nine appearances).

The Dutchwoman has a tough decision to make as to who will be between the sticks, but perhaps Earps is the leader that England will need against USA.

The Opta supercomputer says…

A matchup between the European champions and Olympic gold medallists was always likely to be a close one to call, and the Opta supercomputer is forecasting a tight encounter.

Both teams will see this as a chance to claim a statement victory. England are given a 35.4% win probability, while USA’s chances are ranked at 38.6%. The likelihood of a draw is 26%.

Since the start of 2015, England and USA have met eight times in all competitions (including friendlies). USA have won five of those matches, with England winning just twice and the other game resulting in a draw.

Across those eight fixtures, USA have scored 10 times, keeping four clean sheets, while England have found the net on six occasions. However, England’s victory did come in the last encounter between these teams, with Hemp and Stanway scoring in a 2-1 friendly win in 2022.

USA are unbeaten in each of their last 19 friendly matches (W17 D2), meanwhile, keeping a clean sheet in 15 of those. They have, however, lost their last two friendlies in Europe: vs England and Spain.

It may be a friendly, but there is plenty on the line on Saturday, in what promises to be a fascinating encounter.