Has the Premier League become even more predictable?

Something strange has happened at the bottom of the Premier League this season. It is a well known fact that teams near the bottom fight for their lives in the last few weeks of the season and often get results that would have been unthinkable earlier on.

Failed

This season, with the exception of Stoke who have won six of their last ten games to climb from second from bottom to a position in mid-table, the teams at the bottom end of the table have completely failed to rally.

Ten games ago West Brom were bottom of the table, Middlesbrough were also in the drop zone, Newcastle were sixth from bottom but only two points clear and Hull were seventh from bottom, just one point better off. The other two teams in the bottom seven were Portsmouth and Blackburn.

Same

A look at the bottom seven now, with just one game to go, ten games later, shows that Sunderland have swapped with Stoke, but the other six teams are the same as they were.

A look at the record of the bottom five teams over those ten games tells its own story. West Brom rallied very briefly but they have won just two games in the last ten. Remarkably, Middlesbrough, Newcastle, Hull and Sunderland have all won just one game in the their last ten.

Emphatic

The top four, who were four of the top five ten games ago, have been pretty emphatic since. Manchester United have won seven of their ten games. Liverpool have won nine. Chelsea have won eight and Arsenal seven.

Although it sounds obvious, the top teams keep winning and the bottom teams keep losing. This is not always the case in the last few weeks of the season.

Nailed on

I find this a quite staggering state of affairs. We all know that the top four were nailed on from before the start of the season and you can probably add Everton and Aston Villa now to make that a top six. Is it the case that the bottom seven are also absolutely nailed on? Surely, if those teams can’t muster more than one win in their last ten games when they are fighting for their very survival, then they are guaranteed a place a place in the bottom few.

Blackburn and Portsmouth have survived and two of Middlesbrough, Newcastle, Sunderland and Hull will survive. If we say, for sake of argument that Hull and Sunderland manage to stay up, can we say already that the bottom seven next season will be the three promoted teams, Hull, Blackburn, Sunderland and Portsmouth? With the top six being Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, Everton and Aston Villa that only leaves Tottenham, West Ham, Fulham, Stoke, Bolton, Manchester City and Wigan to fight it out for seventh to thirteenth place.

Predictable

I am a little afraid that the Premier League is becoming so predictable that I wouldn’t get particularly good odds from a bookie to bet on what I have just said for next season.

There was a time when we in England made fun of other leagues around Europe for being predictable. We laughed at Scotland because Celtic and Rangers are the only two teams. La Liga? Barcelona and Real Madrid. Serie A? Inter, Juventus and Milan. Portugal? Porto, Sporting, Benfica. Ligue 1? Lyon, Bordeaux, Marseille. I could go on.

Now, however, although some of the above about the leagues around Europe is definitely true, I would be prepared to suggest that the predictability of these leagues is not as great as that in England. Is it possible to make an educated guess at how the entire league will finish next season in any league other than the Premiership?