Have Newcastle already made the Premier League´s ´big six´ a ´big seven´?

Newcastle United have been attempting to reel in expectations since their controversial owners arrived in the Premier League last October promising glory at home and in Europe within five to 10 years.

Head coach Eddie Howe has repeatedly refused to reveal a target for this season, while he spent the past week attempting to clarify comments on Newcastle’s ambitions.

“Long term, the club have huge plans and huge ambitions,” Howe said after Jurgen Klopp congratulated Newcastle for having “no ceiling”. “But at the moment, the reality of what we’re working towards and working with, there is a ceiling.”

Antonio Conte seemingly disagreed with Howe’s assessment ahead of the Magpies’ visit to Tottenham on Sunday, however.

“You have to consider Newcastle for the present and for the future as a danger, as a dangerous team for the first position, for the Champions League positions, for the fight to win trophies,” he said.

Unfortunately for Spurs, their coach was proven right. A 2-1 win for Newcastle took them above Manchester United and Chelsea into fourth.

Newcastle had not breached the top four after 12 or more matches of a Premier League season since April 2012, when they ultimately finished fifth and were in a relegation battle the following season.

This time, the “danger” they pose to Klopp, Conte and the rest appears more sustainable.

Challenging the elite

Newcastle were themselves the team under threat at the turn of the year, entering 2022 at risk of relegation. However, between January and May, Howe’s side collected the fourth-most points in the division to finish comfortable in 11th.

The Magpies are fourth again this season, yet Howe has not settled for repeating the performances of the first half of the year.

Although Newcastle won 12 of their 19 games over that period, they ranked joint-11th for goals (25), 12th for shots (236) and 14th for expected goals (25.5). They were at least a little better defensively, conceding the joint-fifth-fewest goals (20), facing the sixth-fewest shots (231) and allowing the sixth-lowest xG (23.9).

In 2022-23, Newcastle have improved further on that defensive effort while also striking a balance with their attack.

Their 20 goals rank seventh, their 181 shots third and their 19.7 xG also third. Going the other way, Newcastle have the meanest defence (10 goals conceded), allowing the fifth-lowest xG (12.1) despite giving up 143 shots, the ninth-fewest.

Boosting their starting XI with the signings of Nick Pope and Sven Botman, Newcastle have a better team now than last season, but their improvement is just as much the result of a concerted coaching effort.

Following a dramatic April defeat of Leicester City, Howe said Newcastle needed to “change” the way they played, moving away from the “compact” approach that delivered that result. He and they have done exactly that.

Newcastle are now controlling more of the possession (50.8 per cent versus 41.6 per cent), starting their attacks further upfield (42.6 metres versus 41.3m) and allowing fewer opposition passes per defensive action (10.8 versus 13.7).

That aggressive press is seeing Newcastle register 10.6 high turnovers per game, up from 7.1.

Newcastle were already beating teams in the bottom half; now, they are a major threat against the elite. After defeating Tottenham, the Magpies have five points from four meetings with ‘big six’ opposition this season. They only collected four points from 12 such matches last season.

Toon staying power

This is not the first time one of the ‘other 14’ have attempted to upset the apple cart. Leicester City even remarkably won the title in 2015-16.

The Foxes were able to use that against-the-odds success as a platform to challenge the Premier League’s leading lights over a prolonged period, yet the best they could subsequently manage was a pair of fifth-placed finishes.

Their spending in pursuit of Champions League football caught up with them, leading to the slow start to this season. Newcastle, with their huge financial power, are unlikely to have the same problem.

The Magpies should also avoid the fate that befell West Ham, who similarly chased a top-four place and came up short, seemingly due to a lack of squad depth.

It is Newcastle’s surprising squad depth that has lifted them to this level. Since Alexander Isak’s club-record signing in August, Howe has not been able to play his best XI. Allan Saint-Maximin is yet to play a single minute alongside Isak, with both men injured for Sunday’s match.

Newcastle’s sole loss at Liverpool came with first-choice centre-backs Fabian Schar and Sven Botman rested and Bruno Guimaraes, Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson all out.

Schar, Botman and Guimaraes are the only three players in the Premier League to have played more than 700 minutes this season without tasting defeat.

Miguel Almiron has been the latest secondary star to step up, scoring six goals this season, including five in his past five. Before that run, it was widely expected he would be the man to make way when Isak and Wilson were paired.

Given Kieran Trippier, Guimaraes, Saint-Maximin and Wilson only started together once in 2021-22, Howe might wonder if he will ever see this Newcastle squad at full strength.

On the evidence of this season so far – and Sunday’s superb performance – it might not matter.

Both Wilson and Howe smiled when asked by Sky Sports after the Spurs win what they might do this season. “Keep our feet on the ground,” answered the striker, as his coach replied: “Try to win next week.”

Newcastle’s players and coaches may well now be the only group of people not openly discussing a European charge on Tyneside.