Whether you are a seasoned punter or a newbie, identifying value bets is a great way to increase your earnings. While predicting accurately the outcome of an event remains the most important aspect of long-term success, learning how to spot value in soccer betting markets will return more money for every wager won.
What is a value bet?
A value bet is a wager placed on sporting events in which the odds a bookmaker provides are higher than the actual probability of that event happening. While punters have been looking to explore value since the beginning of gambling by using different ways, there is now a well-established formula to determine if a bet is valuable.
- the formula is: odds*implied probability/100
You have a value bet if the formula returns a positive number for the selected outcome. However, if the number is negative I advise you to shop elsewhere. This is important for long-term success in betting since finding value will increase ROI (return on investment) over time. Also, punters who engage in arbitrage betting are using the same formula for all the outcomes of the event, a strategy that returns a profit regardless of the final result.
Example of value betting
To illustrate better I will give you an example. Arsenal play Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in a well-established London derby. The Gooners have been attributed a 50% chance to win while a Chelsea win was given 20% and a stalemate 30%.
You shop around and identify a bookmaker that offers odds of 2.20 for Arsenal to win. Using the formula described above, let’s find out the value for Mikel Arteta’s side to get all three points:
- 2.20*50/100 = 1.1
As you can see, the formula returned a +1.1 result which is the value of betting on Arsenal to win. Still, having a single betting account will not allow you to find all the time value bets. This is why I recommend you have active accounts with several bookies.
How to find value in soccer betting
Besides finding value bets using different bookmakers, the best way to edge the bookies is by making a detailed pre-match analysis that will allow you to predict the outcome of an event. Also, following odds movement is another indicator to identify value bets. On many occasions, the bookies might wrongly price an outcome based on the volume of wagers placed by punters.
Backing out of-form teams
Value wagers can also be placed on a team with consecutive losses in some instances. These wagers are typically made during poor performances since a winning outcome is eventually anticipated following a string of losses. Some of the factors that indicate a win are:
- returning of key players who were out due to injury or suspension
- a higher number of goals scored in the last match
- keeping a clean sheet in the previous game
While losing five games in a row will have most punters betting against this team, knowing the above factors will help you spot a value bet.
Place wagers on underdogs
Backing favourite teams to win against underdogs will rarely give you any value unless you build Accumulators. However, knowing when to back underdogs can bring you tremendous value in betting. While not all competitions are suited for such an approach, backing underdogs from top leagues like the Premier League, Serie A or Bundesliga is the best option here.
Because in these competitions the underdogs have quality you could find value by backing such sides when playing against underperforming top teams. Manchester United and Bayern Munich are great examples of how Giants of the World Football dropped points during the season against underdogs.
Bayern Munich’s previous season was like a roller coaster ride. Despite signing Harry Kane in the summer, the Bavarian Giants finished without a trophy. Hoffenheim took advantage of their underdog status and defeated Bayern in the last round, despite trailing at halftime.
Although Thomas Tuchel’s side lost the title many rounds before, the ex-Bayern Munich boss was adamant his team finished as runners-up, hence the favourite status given according to the odds attributed for Bayern to win. However, Hoffenheim’s great form with a single loss in the last 4 rounds, coupled with Bayern Munich’s struggles was a perfect scenario to explore the value bet in this fixture by backing a win for the hosts.
How to Spot Value in Live Betting Using Soccer Betting Markets
If trading patterns and individual traders affect odds in pre-match betting, software frequently determines odds in live betting. Without a doubt, bookies make large financial investments in this field and rarely make mistakes, but I would prefer to think that a human person is better equipped to predict a result than a software tool. Because emotions and non-numerical factors make a difference, experienced punters can easily find value in live betting.
A software program cannot predict when a team will physically collapse, when an opponent will increase pressure on the goal, or when a nervous player may make a mistake. Nevertheless, you can foresee these events by watching the game. Because of this advantage, live betting offers even more value wagers than pre-match betting.
Still, being successful in live betting requires mastering many skills. The most important are:
- emotions control
- rational thinking
- quick decisions making
- interpreting the play correctly
While live betting is the best way to explore value, you must have knowledge, experience and a clear plan to be successful. The same criteria like a detailed pre-match analysis and the use of a betting strategy apply for in-play wagers.
Besides, I recommend you stick to what you know best. Don’t bet on corners or bookings based on live events during the match because you will lose. Keep it simple if you lack experience, go for easier selections like both teams to score, Asian handicaps or double chance. As well if the result is not going in your way, you have the option to cash out and reduce the losses. Essentially, knowing how to spot value in soccer betting markets requires experience, knowledge, and a plan. Start slowly by gambling responsibly.
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