Manchester United out to prove WSL title credentials against resurgent Arsenal

The Women’s Super League is back after a break for the international fixtures with a blockbuster clash between Manchester United and Arsenal.

United have set down an early marker and are unbeaten so far this term (W3 D1). Arsenal, meanwhile, have already parted ways with their boss of three years, Jonas Eidevall. It has been a tumultuous start of the season for the Gunners (W2 D2 L1).

Arsenal, however, may feel like they have turned a corner under caretaker boss Renee Slegers, the former assistant to Eidevall who has stepped into the interim role. Picking up a much-needed three points against West Ham last time out kept them in touch with the top four.

The Gunners have also got their Champions League campaign back on track after losing their first game to Bayern Munich. They defeated Valerenga comfortably, so will be looking to keep up the momentum with a third straight win.

United’s strong start to the season has seen them quietly go about their work with an impressive steeliness to their performances. They have only played four games and have a game in hand against Chelsea due to a clash with the Blues’ Champions League schedule.

Marc Skinner’s side are not quite the same as the team that won the FA Cup last season. The most notable absence is goalkeeper Mary Earps, who left in the summer, along with club captain Katie Zelem, Nikita Parris and Lucia Garcia.

That said, the early signs suggest the summer’s significant changes to the squad have not halted the progress made in 2023-24, a season that saw the club lift the first major domestic silverware in their history.

This fixture will be Skinner’s 100th game in charge of United in all competitions. His win rate with the Red Devils (62.6% – 62/99) is by far his best with a team across his managerial career (47% at Birmingham City, 21% at Orlando Pride).

The Opta supercomputer is anticipating a close encounter on Sunday. Despite Arsenal’s early troubles, they are given a 38.9% chance of getting the away win. United are only just behind on 35.1% and the probability of a draw is 26.0%.

Only two points separate the sides

Who will come out on top this weekend? pic.twitter.com/NC38LI37h3

— Barclays Women’s Super League (@BarclaysWSL) November 1, 2024

It is certainly a match that has all the ingredients to be a thriller. But where might the game be won and lost?

United have only lost one of their last four home games against Arsenal in the WSL (W2 D1), drawing 2-2 with the Gunners in this fixture last season.

Their good early form this season has been partly down to their defensive success and the ‘red wall’ they have constructed. Skinner knows that to challenge for the WSL title, his team must be solid at the back, and they have some of the best numbers in the league.

United’s red wall

United have only lost one of their last four home games against Arsenal in the WSL (W2 D1), drawing 2-2 with the Gunners in this fixture last season.

Their good early form this season has been partly down to their defensive success and the ‘red wall’ they have constructed. Skinner knows that to challenge for the WSL title, his team must be solid at the back, and they have some of the best numbers in the league.

United boast the best defence in the WSL this season, conceding only once. Their underlying numbers are good, too. Their 3.95 expected goals against is bettered by only Arsenal (3.56), albeit from one game fewer. Both sides have kept three clean sheets.

United average 0.98 xGA per game in the WSL this term, while they have faced 10.25 shots per game.

Losing Earps to Paris Saint-Germain was a concern for United fans, but they should feel assured that their new number one has risen to the challenge.

Before joining United last summer, Phallon Tullis-Joyce was a regular starter for both her former clubs Reims and Seattle Reign. She knew on her arrival at United that she would be in the shadow of Earps but that did not discourage her. Fast forward a year, and the American’s 93.3% save percentage is the best in the WSL this season.

Tullis-Joyce has a goals prevented figure of 2.74, having conceded just once from an expected goals on target (xGOT) figure of 3.74. Having saved almost three goals more than she ‘should’ have, Tullis-Joyce is the best-performing goalkeeper in the WSL based on the metric.

United also boast some of the brightest young talent in the league and Skinner is finding a way to cultivate their skills.

Maya Le Tissier became the youngest player to reach 100 WSL starts when she featured against Brighton last time out, breaking the record set by Lauren Hemp in December last year.

She has also been a feature of United’s prowess on and off the ball. Le Tissier marked her milestone start with a strong performance at the Amex Stadium, leading United for touches (80), passes (67) and completed passes (56).

Indeed, no United player has had as many touches (351) as the defender this term. She also shone for England during the international break combining with club-mate Grace Clinton for the Lionesses’ second goal in their 2-1 win against South Africa.

Renee’s renaissance

With back-to-back wins and six goals in their two games since Eidevall’s departure, the Arsenal dressing room will certainly feel they are starting to get things back on track. And with a new manager reportedly not close to being announced, interim boss Slegers has the opportunity to prove her credentials for the role.

Arsenal have scored six goals from 4.58 xG in their past two matches. Whereas under Eidevall the Gunners were missing chances with regularity, they have seemingly picked up their finishing under interim boss Slegers. They had scored four goals from 7.0 xG under Eidevall in their first four league matches.

Slegers certainly looks like she’s instilled some extra confidence in her players.

Arsenal have won their last three away games in the WSL and could win four in a row on the road in the league for the first time since December 2022 (eight). That would be the kind of momentum they need in order to challenge United and the other top four sides.

They are beginning to realise some of the potential they showed in pre-season, and the dynamism they lacked last season when they ultimately fell short of a title challenge.

Summer signing Mariona Caldentey has finally got the WSL goal her performances have merited. The former Barcelona star has created 12 chances this season, and accumulated 1.96 expected assists (xA) – the most in the Gunners’ squad.

Her impressive performance in the Champions League win over Valerenga felt like the catalyst she needed. Two goals in two games have proved she has the ability to provide the kind of threat from midfield that Arsenal have previously lacked.

The Gunners may need to lean on their more experienced talent, especially when it comes to changing the game from the bench. Since the beginning of last season, no player has been directly involved in more WSL goals as a substitute than Stina Blackstenius (six – five goals, one assist), with four of her last five goal involvements coming from the bench (three goals, one assist). Last time out against West Ham she helped turn the tide, too.

The biggest change under Slegers has been her desire to commit to a number one, which Eidevall seemed to be on the fence over.

He added to the goalkeeper ranks this summer in the form of Dutch international Daphne van Domselaar, and that’s who Slegers has committed to.

Van Domeslaar, like Tullis-Joyce, has kept three clean sheets this term. She has conceded just twice from 12 shots on target faced, while she’s prevented 2.2 goals with her stops. Her 83.3% save percentage is tied for second in the WSL along with Leicester City’s Janina Leitzig, behind Tullis-Joyce.

That’s a far cry from last season, where first-choice goalkeeper Manuela Zinsberger slightly underperformed, conceding 17 from 16.16 on target, while her save percentage was just 66%.

Losses in key games last season meant the Gunners were left behind by Man City and Chelsea in the title race. Settling on a reliable goalkeeper may just give Arsenal the solid grounding they need this time around.

Living in Graceland

Clinton, who began her professional career at Everton, signed for United in 2022. After loan spells at Bristol City and Tottenham last season, her breakout campaign came last year, and she is already being hailed by some as a generational talent. Her numbers this season suggest those assertions may not be wide of the mark.

She won the PFA Young Player of the Year for her performances with Spurs last term, and her name will surely be on the lips of her England team-mates Alessia Russo, Beth Mead and Leah Williamson as she showed Sarina Wiegman why she should be one of the first names on the team sheet over the international break.

United have struck gold with the 21-year-old and she is the first player to score in three of her first four WSL appearances for the club. Her three goals for the Red Devils is already just one fewer than she managed in her first 34 outings in the competition (0 in 14 for Everton, four in 20 for Tottenham).

Competition in this league is tough, but Clinton is one of five WSL players to score three goals this season, leading the charts along with Johanna Rytting Kaneryd of Chelsea, last year’s Golden Boot winner Khadija Shaw of Man City, Rachel Daly of Aston Villa and Brighton’s Kiko Seike.

Clinton is also a creator. Though she is yet to provide an assist, she has crafted six chances for her club-mates, with only Ella Toone having set up more among United’s squad (seven).

It is not just her impressive attacking statistics that make Clinton stand out. She leads the way in the WSL this season for duels (72), winning half of those (36), a figure that only four players can better in the competition, including Arsenal’s Caldentey (38). Clinton has also won 80% of her tackles (12/15).

United fans are hoping their young talent will ensure they get to the promised land and add to their first major domestic trophy from last season.

While Clinton has been phenomenal, Elizabeth Terland has netted twice from a team-high 1.76 xG, and the Norway international leads United’s squad for shots (14) and touches in the opposition’s box (23). Arsenal will need to be wary of her, too.

Arsenal will hope their own exciting prodigy will be able to come to the fore if selected. Finally off the mark in her maiden WSL campaign is Rosa Kafaji, who was hailed ahead of her move in the summer as one of the most exciting young talents in Europe. Scoring against West Ham last time out should give her the boost she needed in front of goal.

This match-up will be another early indication as to whether United can really challenge for the title as they did in 2022-23. At the beginning of the season, the Opta supercomputer gave Skinner’s side a 1.9% chance of winning the league. Despite their bright start, that likelihood has now dipped to 1.2% with Chelsea’s perfect record, but a win on Sunday could change that.

Arsenal are up against it given their early missteps. Only one team has won the WSL title after winning just one of their opening four matches, and that was Liverpool in 2014 (W1 D3).

Ahead of the season, Arsenal had a 16.1% chance of winning the title – that has now plummeted to just 1.8%, albeit it is still a better chance than United have, according to our model.

United and Arsenal will go at this one with everything, both wanting to keep pace with Chelsea and Man City, who lead the standings.

Will Arsenal’s renaissance continue, or will Skinner’s Red Devils have the metal to prove themselves as title candidates?