Orlando City v Atlanta United: Gregersen relishing must-win Lions showdown

Atlanta United defender Stian Gregersen is relishing his side’s must-win game against Orlando City this weekend and is confident his team can reach the playoffs.

The Five Stripes go into the final day in 12th place in the Eastern Conference, level on points with Philadelphia Union, and three points behind the cut-off line.

While needing favourable outcomes from the matches involving CF Montreal and D.C. United, Gregersen said the focus must remain on their own performance, while also trying to maintain momentum from their win over the New York Red Bulls last time out.

“I think it’s a little bit sad that we had the break because we were so good into this match, but of course, we have to look back at it and keep up,” said Gregersen. “Continue with the confidence we had after this game and continue this weekend, in the training.”

“Every match has its pressure, but this one will be a little bit more special. But we need to focus on ourselves because we know that we have to win.

“After that, we will see what happens with the other teams. I don’t want to know what happens in the other games because we have to win. We can’t control what they are doing. We have to focus on ourselves and then we will see.”

Energy levels pic.twitter.com/FcphzFt5Yf

— Atlanta United FC (@ATLUTD) October 14, 2024

Orlando, meanwhile, have already confirmed their place in the postseason, but are arguably the most in-form team heading into the playoffs.

The Lions’ last fixture before the international break saw them sweep aside FC Cincinnati away from home, earning their sixth win from their last seven MLS games (L1). During that run, they have also scored 19 goals.

Orlando head coach Oscar Pareja understands what is at stake for Atlanta this weekend but highlighted the importance of his team scoring the first goal to control the pace of the game.

“We have found net. We have found answers from our forwards. The offensive side of the team has improved tremendously. I think the compromise that they have had with our defensive phase has brought that product,” Pareja said.

“It doesn’t make sense, but that they are scoring goals because they are defending better, and we are much, much better team when we have this commitment that the boys had up front and we’re happy to do it. It’s the same as we ask the defenders.

“And I said, you have to be proactive to play with the ball, and you have to have personality to play with the ball because that’s the best way to defend, just being offensive. So, I’m very proud of the guys. The guys are doing a good job.”

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Orlando City – Facundo Torres

Torres has recorded 19 goal contributions this season (14 goals, five assists) tied for the second-most in a single season in Orlando’s MLS history.

The only player with a season with 20 or more goal contributions for the Lions was Nani, who recorded 22 goal contributions in the 2019 campaign.

MOOD pic.twitter.com/II9o1bnmmG

— Orlando City SC – x (@OrlandoCitySC) October 6, 2024

Atlanta United – Saba Lobjanidze

Lobjanidze enters the final match of the season as Atlanta’s leading scorer with eight goals.

The Five Stripes have had at least one 10-goal scorer in each of the team’s first six full MLS seasons (excluding shortened 2020 season) with at least one player scoring 12 times in each season.

MATCH PREDICTION: ORLANDO CITY WIN

The last 10 meetings between Orlando and Atlanta have been split, with each side winning three times and drawing four. Neither team has won two consecutive times over those meetings with Atlanta recording a 2-0 home win in the last matchup on March 17.

However, the Lions have won 10 of their last 13 regular-season matches (D1 L2), including the last three in a row. No team has collected more points than Orlando’s 31 since the beginning of July.

Atlanta have 37 points entering the final match of the season. The fewest points the Five Stripes have totalled over a full MLS season (excluding shortened 2020 season) is 40 in 2022.

OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

Orlando City – 57.9%

Draw –21.9%

Atlanta United – 20.2%