Philadelphia Union v FC Cincinnati: Curtin admits hosts´ playoff chances are slim

Jim Curtin knows it will be a tall order for the Philadelphia Union to clinch an MLS Cup Playoff place on Decision Day, simply telling his team to do their bit versus FC Cincinnati.

Philadelphia must beat last season’s Supporters’ Shield winners and hope CF Montreal and D.C. United both lose, to New York City and Charlotte FC respectively, to extend their season.

The Union have only missed the playoffs in two of their nine full campaigns under Curtin, but they are on the brink of doing so following back-to-back defeats to Orlando City (2-1) and the Columbus Crew (3-1).

Ahead of this weekend’s Decision-Day clash with Cincinnati, Curtin said: “At this time of year you have to do the little things right and we didn’t [versus Columbus].

“It’s not in our control anymore, so we’ll need some help. What we can control is getting a win at home against a strong Cincinnati team, something we’re more than capable of.

“Obviously we’ve let ourselves down in recent weeks, we’ve played some great opponents and had chances to get back into games.

“But if we’re honest, we were outplayed by Orlando and Columbus, those two teams are a level above us right now. Now it comes down to Decision Day.”

Cincinnati have already clinched their playoff place but have suffered three straight defeats to Los Angeles FC, NYCFC and Orlando.

Speaking after their most recent loss, winger Yamil Asad said he would prefer the Orange and Blue to make their mistakes before the postseason begins.

“This is tough because we are close to the playoffs, this is the third loss in a week,” Asad said.

“But I think it’s better to happen now and fix all of these bad things that we did and be focused on and keep doing the right things.”

Continuing to work.#DOOP | @IBX pic.twitter.com/p9vMXxnrMd

— Philadelphia Union (@PhilaUnion) October 16, 2024

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Philadelphia Union – Andre Blake

Philadelphia have scored 61 goals but sit below the playoff line entering the final day of the season.

No team in MLS history has scored 62 or more goals in a regular season and missed the playoffs (35/35 entering 2024).

If they are to sneak into the postseason, they may need a big performance from Blake, whose save percentage of 75% is the second-best of any MLS goalkeeper with at least 10 appearances this year.

FC Cincinnati – Luciano Acosta

Acosta has recorded 93 goal contributions over the last three seasons (41 goals, 52 assists), more than any other player over a three-season span in MLS history (Sebastian Giovinco – 92 from 2015 to 2017).

MATCH PREDICTION – PHILADELPHIA UNION WIN

Cincinnati enter the final match of the season with 10 away wins already 2024. The most road wins in a single season in the post-shootout era (since 2000) in MLS is 11, set by Montreal in 2022 and matched by Inter Miami this season.

They face a daunting task in looking to match those feats, though. The Union knocked Cincinnati out of this year’s Leagues Cup in the last 16 with a 4-2 away win on August 13.

The Union have taken 10 points from their last five home league games (three wins, one draw, one defeat), scoring 13 times in those matches, and simply must win.

OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

Philadelphia Union – 46.8%

FC Cincinnati – 26.8%

Draw – 26.4%