Verdict: Away win
Best odds: 10/11
Bookmaker: Unibet
A month after their five-goal thriller in Saudi Arabia, Serie A giants AC Milan and Inter Milan are set for a more traditional Derby della Madonnina on Sunday.
Inter seek crucial points to bolster their Scudetto defense, while Milan aim for a third victory over their city rivals this season as they face off at San Siro.
AC Milan
Since their 2-1 league win in September, when Matteo Gabbia’s late goal ended a long losing streak against Inter, Milan have fallen 16 points behind in the Serie A standings.
But despite their inconsistency, the Rossoneri recently shattered Inter’s quadruple hopes by overturning a two-goal deficit to win the Supercoppa Italiana final. Tammy Abraham’s last-minute strike in Riyadh secured Milan’s second consecutive derby victory across all competitions, matching their total wins from the previous 13 encounters.
Following that triumph, results have been mixed under Sergio Conceicao, who recently suffered his first setback with a 2-0 defeat to Juventus in Turin.
Milan rebounded by beating Girona in the Champions League and twice came from behind to edge Parma 3-2 last weekend, with stoppage-time goals from Tijjani Reijnders and Samuel Chukwueze. However, after being reduced to 10 men in their final league-phase game, a 2-1 loss to Dinamo Zagreb, Milan now face Feyenoord in a play-off to advance in UEFA’s top competition.
Before that, Conceicao, who made 41 Serie A appearances for Inter during a very illustrious playing career, will aim to become only the second Rossoneri coach in 35 years to win his first two derbies while boosting Milan’s European hopes for next season.
Team News
While Kyle Walker has recently joined to address Milan’s right-back issues, it remains uncertain whether the England defender will be thrown into the intensity of a city derby.
Sergio Conceicao may be inclined to start him, however, as Emerson Royal is injured and club captain Davide Calabria had a public clash with his coach last weekend, with Fikayo Tomori stepping in on Wednesday.
In addition, midfield key player Youssouf Fofana is suspended, and Alvaro Morata could be on his way out. Malick Thiaw, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, and long-term absentee Alessandro Florenzi are all unavailable.
Inter Milan
While Milan face a tough battle to reach the Champions League last 16, Inter cruised past Monaco in midweek, securing a comfortable 3-0 home win to advance with a second-place finish in the league phase.
Back to his best after an early-season dip, last season’s Capocannoniere and captain Lautaro Martinez scored a hat-trick on Wednesday, following his goal in last week’s 4-0 league win over Lecce.
That victory kept the reigning champions just three points behind relentless league leaders Napoli, with the title race now appearing to be a two-horse contest, as Atalanta trail behind.
Inter have netted 55 goals in Serie A this season, their highest at this stage since 1961, and their defensive record is nearly as impressive. The Nerazzurri have conceded only one goal across eight European fixtures and have kept a clean sheet in their last seven away league games.
With an aggregate score of 23-0 in that run, Simone Inzaghi’s side can match Milan’s national record of eight consecutive clean sheets, set in March 1994, when they play as ‘visitors’ on Sunday.
Team News
Inter’s fitness concerns include ex-Milan player Hakan Calhanoglu (calf) and veteran defender Francesco Acerbi (hamstring), but only Joaquin Correa is confirmed to be sidelined.
Having fielded something close to his strongest lineup in midweek, Inzaghi is not expected to make many changes, with revitalized striker Lautaro Martinez partnering Marcus Thuram up front. ‘El Toro’ has scored nine league goals this season, and one more would mark his sixth consecutive Serie A season with double figures, making him the third Inter player to reach 10 goals against Milan in all competitions.
On the Nerazzurri’s right flank, attacking wing-back Denzel Dumfries has netted in each of his last three top-flight appearances.
Conclusion
The last time Inter failed to score before half-time in a Serie A derby was in February 2020, so expect a fast start from a team eager to avenge back-to-back defeats.
While Milan remain in turmoil, their city rivals have been approaching their best form in recent weeks and will likely prove too strong to overcome.
Verdict: Away win
Best odds: 10/11
Bookmaker: Unibet
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