Prediction: AC Milan vs Lecce

Verdict: Total home goals over 2.5

Best odds: 13/10

Bookmaker: 888sport

Following their derby triumph over Inter Milan, AC Milan will look to continue their resurgence in Serie A as they host Lecce at San Siro on Friday evening.

The Rossoneri’s 2-1 victory against their city rivals helped ease the pressure on manager Paulo Fonseca, who had been under scrutiny after a mixed start to the season. Lecce, meanwhile, are coming to San Siro on the back of a Coppa Italia defeat to Sassuolo.

AC Milan

Milan’s long-awaited victory over Inter Milan in the Derby della Madonnina was a turning point for the Rossoneri, ending a painful run of six straight derby defeats. Boyhood fan Matteo Gabbia’s late header secured a dramatic 2-1 win at San Siro, lifting some of the pressure off Fonseca.

Entering the derby, the Milan boss was facing speculation over his future, especially after the Rossoneri’s slow start in Serie A and a home defeat to Liverpool in the Champions League. However, a bold tactical switch paid dividends, with Christian Pulisic opening the scoring early and Gabbia sealing the win with a dramatic late goal.

With back-to-back league wins, Milan have climbed to sixth place with eight points from five matches, and they will now look to make it three straight victories when they host Lecce. Historically, Lecce have been a favorable opponent for the Rossoneri, who are unbeaten in 12 league encounters with them, including a 3-0 victory in their last meeting where Pulisic found the net.

Ahead of their Champions League clash with Bayer Leverkusen, Fonseca will be eager to have his team maintain momentum and keep climbing the Serie A standings.

Team News

After experimenting with a two-striker formation in the derby, featuring both Alvaro Morata and Tammy Abraham, Fonseca faces a tactical dilemma ahead of AC Milan’s clash with Lecce. He must decide whether to stick with the dual-striker setup or revert to a more familiar system as they prepare for a challenging Champions League fixture against Bayer Leverkusen.

Regardless of the formation, key attacking players Rafael Leao and top scorer Christian Pulisic are expected to feature in supporting roles. However, with rotation likely due to the upcoming European test, Fonseca could turn to options such as Noah Okafor and Samu Chukwueze, who are ready to step in.

Milan’s injury concerns persist, with Marco Sportiello (hand), Ismael Bennacer (ankle), and Alessandro Florenzi (ACL) all sidelined, while captain Davide Calabria remains a major doubt due to a muscular issue.

Lecce

Lecce are hoping to break a long-standing drought against Milan, having not won a top-flight match against the Rossoneri since April 2006. However, recent form suggests that the odds are stacked against them. Luca Gotti’s side has struggled to find consistency, with their last win dating back to August. They also suffered a disappointing Coppa Italia exit in midweek, losing 2-0 at home to Serie B side Sassuolo, further denting their confidence.

Last weekend, Lecce threw away a golden opportunity to claim three points against Parma, after goals from Patrick Dorgu and Nikola Krstovic had them on course for victory. Unfortunately, two stoppage-time goals from Parma turned the match around, resulting in a 2-2 draw. This setback, coupled with their cup elimination, leaves Lecce searching for answers ahead of their daunting trip to San Siro.

Despite their struggles, Lecce can take some solace in being unbeaten in their last three Serie A matches, though Milan presents a significantly tougher challenge.

Team News

Lecce are set to reinstate several key players for their challenging encounter with AC Milan. After making a number of changes in their midweek Coppa Italia defeat, Luca Gotti will recall star striker Nikola Krstovic, who has been the Giallorossi’s only multiple goal-scorer this season, and influential defender Federico Baschirotto. First-choice goalkeeper Wladimiro Falcone is also expected to return, along with the possibility of former Milan forward Ante Rebic featuring against his old club.

With French full-back Frédéric Guilbert suspended following his red card against Parma, Andy Pelmard is likely to step in as his replacement. However, Lecce will be without Mohamed Kaba, who is sidelined with an ACL injury, and Medon Berisha, who is out with a thigh issue.

Conclusion

AC Milan’s morale is high after their impressive derby win, and facing a Lecce side that has struggled away from home gives the Rossoneri an excellent chance to claim a straightforward victory at San Siro. Though questions remain about their defensive solidity, Milan’s attacking strength—led by Christian Pulisic, Rafael Leao, and either Alvaro Morata or Tammy Abraham—should prove too much for Lecce.

With Paulo Fonseca seemingly finding the right balance in his lineup, Milan’s firepower is expected to be decisive in securing all three points, especially against a Lecce team that has lacked consistency and confidence in recent weeks.

Verdict: Total home goals over 2.5

Best odds: 13/10

Bookmaker: 888sport