Prediction: APOEL vs Real Madrid

26th March 2012

APOEL produced quite a coup by eliminating Lyon in the previous round, but now that they have reached the Champions League quarter-finals the Cypriot side are eager to make life difficult for Real Madrid. Los Blancos may be hot favourites to go through, but unless they give their best in Nicosia, Ivan Jovanovic’s men could spring another major surprise.

The most decorated Cypriot side of all time largely struggled to make an impact in European competitions over the years, but they saw a major uptrend in fortunes after the arrival of Serbian coach Ivan Jovanovic. The virtually unknown manager led APOEL to Champions League group stages two years ago before repeating the success this season. The Cypriots were seen as major underdogs in the group with the likes of Porto, Zenit and Shakhtar, but they not only managed to qualify from the first place, but also succeeded in eliminating very good Lyon side to reach the quarter-finals of the competition. Successfully shifting between defence-minded approach and all-out attack, APOEL have done brilliantly to reach the final stages of the competition and they will relish the opportunity to face one of the best sides in Europe at the moment. The hosts will try to keep things tight at the back and hit Real on the break, which is the approach that has brought them so much success at their Neo GSP this season. Backed by the vociferous support from the stands and with only Gustavo Manduca missing out, APOEL certainly look like they can keep the tie alive before the return leg at Santiago Bernabeu.

Having struggled to keep up with Barcelona on both domestic and international stage over the last few years, Real Madrid are finally showing some promise and they could make this one of the most successful seasons in recent history. Los Blancos easily eliminated CSKA Moscow in the first knockout stage, even though they could only muster a 1-1 draw in Moscow, and Jose Mourinho’s men were then awarded a very favourable draw. Nevertheless, while the APOEL tie looks like a piece of cake on paper, the reality is completely different as the Cypriots have become a real force to be reckoned with in Nicosia. On top of that, Real Madrid have seen a small dip in form, having won just one of their last three games and with several important players missing out, los Blancos are likely to face a difficult task in the first leg. Xabi Alonso is suspended, whereas Angel Di Maria, Lassana Diarra, Jose Callejon and Ricardo Carvalho are out injured.

Conclusion

APOEL proved on numerous occasions that they can beat much stronger sides at Neo GSP Stadium, and with their motivation at a maximum, I believe the Cypriots can achieve a respectable result in the first leg. Real Madrid are not exactly on top of their game at the moment and they could struggle to cope with their hard-working opponents.

Verdict: APOEL with +1.5 Asian handicap

Best Odds: 23/20

Bookmaker: bet365