Prediction: AS Roma vs Lazio

Verdict: Total goals under 2.5

Best odds: 7/10

Bookmaker: 888sport

A highly anticipated Derby della Capitale awaits on Saturday evening as Serie A powerhouses AS Roma and Lazio clash at their mutual home of Stadio Olimpico.

Since their goalless draw in the reverse fixture back in November, and a subsequent Coppa Italia victory for the Biancocelesti, both clubs have undergone managerial changes. With European qualification still within reach for both Eternal City rivals, a fiercely contested encounter is on the horizon.

AS Roma

The upcoming match will mark the 183rd Rome derby across all competitions. Since the inaugural official meeting between Roma and Lazio in December 1929, numerous controversies and incidents have occurred, sparking heated debates in the Italian capital and beyond.

In recent times, Roma have faced unfavorable outcomes against their arch-rivals. The Coppa Italia defeat in January served as a significant blow, leading to the departure of the controversial figure Jose Mourinho shortly thereafter, as concerns mounted within the Giallorossi’s board.

Initially destined for a mid-table finish, Roma have experienced a resurgence in form, currently occupying fifth place in the standings despite a somewhat frustrating 0-0 draw against Lecce in their previous outing. Under the guidance of returning club legend Daniele De Rossi, they are vying for a coveted top-four finish, with the possibility of five Champions League spots up for grabs next month.

Despite dropping points in their recent away fixture, Roma’s unbeaten streak extends to six Serie A matches. Under De Rossi’s tenure, the team has lost just one of their 10 league games, accumulating 23 points in the process. Only two previous coaches have amassed more points from their first 10 top-flight fixtures in charge of the Giallorossi so far this century.

Furthermore, Roma’s upcoming Europa League quarter-final clash against AC Milan adds to the feeling of excitement around the club. They will face off in the first leg of an enticing all-Italian encounter at San Siro next week.

Returning to home soil, where they have excelled this season, Roma has secured victory in 10 of their 15 league matches.

However, they now face the challenge of breaking a scoring drought against Lazio, having failed to find the net in their last four encounters. A potential fifth consecutive match without scoring against their bitter rivals looms, a scenario unprecedented in their rivalry’s history.

Team News

Roma captain Lorenzo Pellegrini returns from suspension just in time for the derby and is expected to take his place in the advanced midfield role, ahead of Leandro Paredes and Bryan Cristante.

Paulo Dybala, having fully recovered from his latest injury and making a brief appearance against Lecce, is set to feature in the attacking trio alongside Romelu Lukaku and Stephan El Shaarawy. The Argentina international boasts an impressive record of being directly involved in a goal every 80 minutes this season. However, despite scoring seven times in his first 10 league games against Lazio, he has failed to find the net in each of the last seven encounters.

In defense, Evan Ndicka will be unavailable due to a one-match ban, leaving Diego Llorente or Dean Huijsen as potential replacements. Danish full-back Rasmus Kristensen remains sidelined with a thigh problem.

Lazio

During Roma’s barren streak, Lazio have won three matches and drawn one against their rivals, and now they’re aiming to extend their unbeaten run to five derbies for the first time since 2013.

Despite the absence of notorious figures like Mourinho and Maurizio Sarri, Saturday’s clash is expected to be a fiery affair. Lazio (79) and Roma (78) rank among Serie A’s top three teams in terms of cards received this season, which goes far to add to the already loaded expectancy of passion and intensity. Additionally, Sarri’s successor is known for his assertive coaching style.

Igor Tudor, who made a promising start at Stadio Olimpico by defeating former club Juventus last weekend with a stoppage-time winner from Adam Marusic, has guided Lazio to seventh place in the standings.

However, Tudor’s side still trails Roma by six points. Despite their recent triumph against Juventus, Lazio faced a setback with a 2-0 Coppa Italia loss to the same opponent in midweek.

Although the second leg of the tie will take place later this month, Lazio must focus on salvaging their league campaign. They have conceded more goals compared to last season’s runners-up finish under Sarri and have struggled to score goals, ranking 10th in Serie A’s goal tally and 15th in shots taken. Ciro Immobile leads Lazio’s scoring chart with six goals, followed by Mattia Zaccagni and Taty Castellanos with four each. Nonetheless, a moment of brilliance could decide the outcome of the upcoming Derby della Capitale.

In contrast, Roma’s Romelu Lukaku and Paulo Dybala have already reached double figures in goals.

Team News

Lazio will be without Mattia Zaccagni, who sustained an injury early in Tuesday’s Coppa Italia match. Gustav Isaksen replaced him during that game, but ex-Roma forward Pedro provides Tudor with a more experienced option and is eager to make an impact against his former club.

In addition to Zaccagni, first-choice goalkeeper Ivan Provedel (ankle), Manuel Lazzari (calf), and Nicolo Rovella (groin) are unlikely to be available for Saturday’s fixture.

Captain Ciro Immobile is expected to start upfront, edging out Taty Castellanos for selection. Immobile has scored four Serie A goals for Lazio against Roma so far, but his most recent goal against them dates back to January 2021.

Conclusion

With both sides showing improved performances after changing head coaches, they will both be extra motivated with neither wanting to see their form disrupted by losing to the other. One goal could be all it takes to bring victory in this clash, but it’s hard to tell in advance which team will score it. That said, most bookies give somewhat shorter odds on a Roma victory, obviously due to their higher position in the Serie A rankings.

Verdict: Total goals under 2.5

Best odds: 7/10

Bookmaker: 888sport