Verdict: Home win
Best odds: 5/4
Bookmaker: Olympusbet
A spot in the Copa del Rey final hangs in the balance as Athletic Bilbao hosts Atletico Madrid at San Mames for the second leg of their last-four tie on Thursday evening.
The hosts are slightly ahead going into the home clash, following a narrow victory at the Wanda Metropolitano earlier this month.
Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao hold the advantage in their fifth consecutive Copa del Rey semi-final appearance, clinching a 1-0 victory in the first leg with Alex Berenguer’s 25th-minute penalty.
Since their successful outing in the capital, Ernesto Valverde’s side has experienced mixed results, with a goalless draw against Almeria and a 3-2 victory over Girona preceding a 3-1 defeat against Real Betis on Sunday.
Currently sitting in fifth place with 49 points from 26 league matches, Bilbao are in contention to return to the Champions League for the first time since the 2014/15 season, with only three points separating them from fourth-placed Atletico Madrid.
Despite their focus on the league, Athletic Bilbao will temporarily set aside their top-four aspirations as they aim to reach the Copa del Rey final for the first time since their consecutive final appearances in 2021, with the 2019/20 final postponed due to COVID-19.
With a string of unsuccessful final appearances behind them, Bilbao are eager to secure their first Copa del Rey title since the 1983/84 season when they defeated Barcelona 1-0, marking their 23rd victory in the competition’s history.
As they aim to protect their narrow lead from the first leg, Athletic will draw inspiration from their formidable home record, having avoided defeat in each of their previous 14 competitive home matches.
Team News
Ander Herrera remains sidelined due to injury, while Yuri Berchiche is unlikely to feature after sustaining a hamstring problem in Sunday’s defeat to Betis.
Yeray Alvarez’s availability is also uncertain due to an ankle issue that kept him out of the match against Betis, and he remains a doubt for Thursday’s semi-final clash.
In goal, Unai Simon will be replaced by Julen Agirrezabala, who has featured in all six of Athletic’s Copa del Rey matches this season.
Despite receiving a red card over the weekend, Nico Williams will be eligible to play in the second leg as his suspension only applies to La Liga matches.
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid’s defeat to Athletic on February 7 sparked a downturn in their form, as they have managed to win just one of their last five matches across all competitions (one draw, three defeats).
Following a loss to Sevilla, they rebounded with a dominant 5-0 victory over Las Palmas before suffering a 1-0 defeat in the first leg of their Champions League last-16 tie against Serie A leaders Inter Milan.
Diego Simeone’s team faced further disappointment over the weekend, conceding the lead on multiple occasions to settle for a 2-2 draw against bottom-of-the-table Almeria at the Power Horse Stadium.
This recent setback extends Atletico’s winless streak to four away matches, with only two wins in their previous eight games away from the Wanda Metropolitano.
Their concerning away form raises doubts ahead of Thursday’s visit to San Mames, where they aim to overturn a first-leg deficit and secure their spot in the Copa del Rey final for the first time since their triumph 11 years ago.
Despite losing to Athletic twice this season, Atletico have a history of advancing from two-legged Copa del Rey ties against the Basque club, having progressed in their last three encounters, though the most recent aggregate victory occurred a decade ago, in 2013/14.
Team News
Atletico will be without Cesar Azpilicueta, Jose Maria Gimenez, and Thomas Lemar due to injury concerns.
Antoine Griezmann, Atletico’s top scorer, is facing a race against time to recover for the second leg after sustaining an ankle injury in last Tuesday’s Champions League clash against Inter Milan.
Axel Witsel and Mario Hermoso are expected to be reinstated in the lineup.
Additionally, manager Diego Simeone may opt to include Marcos Llorente and Alvaro Morata in his starting XI as well.
Conclusion
Atletico Madrid’s recent away form, with just one win in their last five matches, contrasts vastly with Athletic’s unbeaten streak of 14 matches at San Mames. With this formidable home record, the Valverde’s team is expected to capitalize on their home advantage and secure a narrow victory to book a spot in the Copa del Rey final.
Verdict: Home win
Best odds: 5/4
Bookmaker: Olympusbet
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