Verdict: Draw
Best odds: 12/5
Bookmaker: Olympusbet
The latest edition of the Madrid derby is set to unfold at the Wanda Metropolitano on Sunday evening, as Atletico Madrid host city rivals Real Madrid in a high-stakes La Liga clash.
Atletico currently occupy third place in the standings, with 15 points from their opening seven fixtures, while Real find themselves in second, having accumulated 17 points, four adrift of current leaders Barcelona.
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid will be eager to make a significant statement in this season’s La Liga title race when they face Los Blancos on Sunday. Their last league title triumph happened in the 2020/21 season, and while they are not widely tipped to finish above Real Madrid and Barcelona, a win this weekend could certainly change perceptions and bolster their title ambitions.
Diego Simeone’s men have started the 2024//25 campaign solidly, even if not spectacularly, with an unbeaten record of four wins and three draws from their seven matches so far. This has placed them third in the standings, only two points behind second-placed Real Madrid. Known for their defensive resilience, Atletico boast the best defensive record in La Liga this season, conceding only three goals and keeping clean sheets in five of their last six league outings.
Despite a 1-1 draw against Rayo Vallecano last weekend, Atletico bounced back with a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Celta Vigo on Thursday, thanks to a last-minute strike from Julian Alvarez. It marked their fourth win in five matches across all competitions, and they will take confidence from being the last team to defeat Real Madrid in La Liga – a 3-1 triumph at the Wanda Metropolitano in September 2023.
Team News
Atletico will head into the Madrid derby with a few notable absentees due to injury, including Cesar Azpilicueta, Thomas Lemar, and Pablo Barrios, but the squad remains in strong shape for the showdown against Real Madrid.
Diego Simeone is expected to make several changes from the side that secured a narrow 1-0 win over Celta Vigo. Julian Alvarez, Rodrigo De Paul, and Samuel Lino are all set to return to the starting XI, with Alvarez likely to partner Antoine Griezmann in the attack. This could see Alexander Sorloth drop to the bench.
Meanwhile, Conor Gallagher, who joined from Chelsea in the summer, is set for his first Madrid derby appearance, adding fresh energy and dynamism to Atletico’s midfield.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid head into the Madrid derby with an impressive unbeaten run in La Liga, stretching to 39 matches, as they aim to close in on Barcelona’s all-time record of 43 games. However, Carlo Ancelotti’s men face a tough test against the Rojiblancos at the Wanda Metropolitano.
After winning the La Liga and Champions League double last season, Real Madrid remain among the favorites in both competitions this term as well. Their squad was further bolstered by the free transfer arrival of Kylian Mbappe, though the French star will be absent from his first Madrid derby due to injury.
Los Blancos have been in fine form this season, winning five and drawing two of their seven league matches, placing them second in La Liga with 17 points – just four points behind leaders Barcelona. Their recent run of five consecutive wins in all competitions includes a 3-1 victory over Stuttgart in their Champions League opener.
Real Madrid’s upcoming schedule before the October international break is packed, with Atletico and Villarreal in La Liga and Lille in the Champions League. Historically, Real have enjoyed dominance in this fixture, winning 116 of the 236 meetings between the clubs, but Atletico have had success in recent years, including the triumph a year ago.
Team News
Real’s lineup for the Madrid derby will be significantly impacted by the absence of their top scorer, Mbappe, who is sidelined with a thigh injury picked up against Alaves. In addition to Mbappe, Brahim Diaz, Dani Ceballos, and David Alaba are also unavailable, but there is some good news with Eduardo Camavinga expected to return to the squad after recovering from his knee injury.
Dani Carvajal, who missed the 3-2 win over Alaves, is set to reclaim his place in the starting lineup following his recovery. To adjust for Mbappe’s absence, Carlo Ancelotti is likely to revert to a 4-3-1-2 formation, a system often used last season. This tactical shift will allow Jude Bellingham to play in the No. 10 role behind the attacking duo of Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo.
Veteran playmaker Luka Modric is expected to start in midfield alongside Aurelien Tchouameni and Federico Valverde, providing both creativity and stability in the centre of the park.
Conclusion
The last clash between these teams ended with spoils shared, and it’s not unlikely to happen again. Real are significantly weakened upfront by Mbappe’s absence, and Atletico’s firm defence should help Diego Simeone’s side hold the reigning champions to a low-scoring draw.
Verdict: Draw
Best odds: 12/5
Bookmaker: Olympusbet
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