Verdict: Under 2.5 goals
Best Odds: 43/40
Bookmaker: Bet 365
It’s second vs third this weekend as Atletico Madrid and Valencia go head to head and both will be optimistic of finishing above an unusually inconsistent Real Madrid side in La Liga.
Atletico Madrid
With Barcelona looking to be out of reach at the top of the table, Atletico Madrid will have their sights firmly set on finishing second. They are currently six points ahead of opponents Valencia and a win at the Estadio Wanda Metropolitano will open up a decent gap between them. Diego Simeone’s men have been not been beaten at home this season and that’s mainly due to their strength in defence that the manager has installed since his time at the club. It’s Atleti’s struggles in attack that have been their main problem and they’ve only netted an average of 1.4 goals per game at their new stadium. However, fans will be hoping that’s all about to change with the return of their hero Diego Costa. The former Chelsea man has scored one goal in two games since he’s been back and he will be optimistic of frequently adding to that tally given the attacking creativity of Antoine Griezmann alongside him. The Frenchman has netted at least once in each of his last three appearances for the club and is also current top goal scorer.
Team News
Diego Costa should start up front while Sime Vrsalijko returns from a ban and should play at right-back.
Valencia
Even though Valencia are currently third in La Liga, they are six points behind opponents Atletico Madrid and a defeat against them on Sunday could spell the end of their top-two ambitions. It is now five defeats in eight league games though for Los Che and confidence will be low, especially after their 4-1 drumming against Real Madrid last weekend. They’ve also conceded at least one goal in each of the last nine La Liga matches and fans will be hoping they can improve on this record quickly. However, Marcelino’s men will be able to take something from the fact they managed to reduce Barcelona to only one goal in their defeat in the Copa del Rey last week. Defensively they looked a lot more solid than in recent matches and they may adopt the same approach against Atleti in an attempt to frustrate their opponents. It could be a tight game on Sunday though as Valencia have also failed to score in the last three meetings between the two sides.
Team News
Valencia are without a few first-team regulars, including Goncalo Guedes, Geoffrey Kondogbia, Jeison Murillo and Ezequiel Garay.
Key Factors to Consider
- Atletico Madrid have only conceded an average of 0.43 goals per game this season
- However, they’ve struggled to score at home and have netted an average of 1.4 goals per game
- Valencia have conceded in each of their last nine league matches
- Atleti have won four and drawn one of their last five home games with Los Che
- Valencia have not scored a goal in their past three meetings with Diego Simone’s men
Conclusion
Atletico Madrid win most of their games at home by the odd goal because of their defensive approach. Meanwhile, Valencia will be hoping to improve on their recent problems at the back and may attempt to keep things tight. For this reason we believe the game will finish with under 2.5 goals.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals
Best Odds: 43/40
Bookmaker: Bet 365
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