Prediction: Barcelona vs Chelsea

23rd April 2012

Fresh from the El Clasico defeat that saw Barcelona drop out of the La Liga title race, the Catalans take on Chelsea in the second leg of the Champions League semi-final. The Blues gained the upper hand of the tie with the lucky win at Stamford Bridge, but they now need to produce another stunning display in order to qualify for the final.

Things haven’t gone as planned for the Catalans this season as they struggled to keep up with arch rivals Real in Spanish La Liga from the very start of the league campaign, and we can safely say they are out of the title race after the unlucky defeat in Saturday’s El Clasico. The fact that all-important clash with Chelsea is on agenda just three days after the Real Madrid clash could be a good thing as the players won’t have a lot of time to worry about the La Liga failure. On the other hand, back to back defeats to Chelsea and Real Madrid did act as a bitter blow to the players’ confidence and further disrupted the atmosphere in the squad, so the hosts could find it hard to break their hard-working opponents, at least in the opening stage of the game. Pep Guardiola’s rotation policy is not producing desired results, while Lionel Messi also appears to be far from his best, having failed to score in last two games. It remains to be seen whether Gerard Pique will be in the squad after missing last two games, but Alexis Sanchez and Cesc Fabregas should return.

While Chelsea have been showing a lot of promise under Roberto Di Matteo, it is fair to say not too many people expected the Blues to make life difficult to Barcelona, taking into account Barca’s technical superiority and their run of 14 wins in 15 games. The Blues were indeed outplayed by their more illustrious opponents, but their marvelous defensive performance prevented the Catalans from scoring, while an effectively executed counterattack saw Didier Drogba score the winning goal and send home fans into raptures. The 1-0 result from the first leg is much more than anyone in the Chelsea camp could ask for, but Roberto Di Matteo and his players are aware it cannot guarantee them an easy game at Camp Nou. However, with Barcelona far from the desired form and under pressure after the El Clasico defeat, Chelsea can be trusted not to concede in the opening stage of the game and maybe they can even reach the half-time break without conceding. The return of Branislav Ivanovic and several players who were rested against Arsenal should help them in their quest, but David Luiz is likely to miss the game through a hamstring problem.

Conclusion

Barcelona are set to attack their opponents from the off, but Chelsea already proved they are a very difficult team to break when they adopt a defence-minded approach. The Catalans are expected to score at least once and win the game, but I wouldn’t bet on that happening in the first period. Betting on draw at half-time looks like a good option.

Verdict: Draw at half-time

Best Odds: 15/8

Bookmaker: Paddy Power