Prediction: Barcelona vs Real Madrid

22nd August 2012

This may be just the Spanish Super Cup first leg tie, but given the history between the two teams, we can certainly expect a lot of fire when the old rivals meet at Camp Nou. Having done really well in previous meetings between the two sides, Barcelona hope to continue the trend, whereas Real Madrid have a chance to prove the opening La Liga draw against Valencia was just a one off result.

Barcelona chiefs have made sure new boss Tito Vilanova has the best possible team for the start of the post-Guardiola era, having signed Jordi Alba and Alex Song in the summer transfer window. With David Villa and Carles Puyol returning into action after the lengthy spell on the sidelines, the Catalans have kicked-off the new season in the best possible way, recording a 5-1 victory over Real Sociedad, although the first El Clasico of the season should offer us a better insight into team’s current form. Tito Vilanova is likely to stick to the tried and tested 4-3-3 formation for the Real clash, with Leo Messi once again deployed as a false nine. Gerard Pique, Alexis Sanchez and Andres Iniesta are set to start after they were rested at the weekend, but David Villa will have to wait for his chance on the bench, despite scoring against Real Sociedad. With Iniesta likely to act as an attacking midfielder and not on the wing, Cesc Fabregas will have to settle for a place on the bench.

The La Liga triumph was clearly a huge success for Real Madrid, but los Merengues need to improve their head to head record against Barcelona if they are to be regarded as the best team in Spain. Given that the Luka Modric transfer saga is not over yet, los Blancos go into the new season with a virtually unchanged squad, and the one that largely impressed in pre-season. However, having failed to beat Valencia in their opening La Liga games, Real Madrid will clearly have something to prove at Camp Nou, while a promising showing against their arch rivals would be a huge confidence boost at the moment. Jose Mourinho is ruing the fact that defender Pepe is out with a head injury, given that the Portuguese usually excels when facing Barcelona. The Special One is expected to sacrifice one attacking midfielder, probably Di Maria, in order to field three defensive midfielders, while Gonzalo Higuain will get the nod up front after scoring the only goal against Valencia.

Conclusion

Home field advantage and the absence of Pepe from Real Madrid should make Barca favourites to win the first leg and create an advantage before the second match, especially as Real Madrid don’t seem to be at their best at the moment. El Clasico matches are always tight affairs, but I have reason to believe Barcelona will prevail here.

Verdict: Home win Barcelona (1)

Best Odds: 17/20

Bookmaker: BetVictor