Verdict: Home win
Best odds: 2/1
Bookmaker: Olympusbet
In what could be the decisive clash of the Bundesliga title race, reigning champions Bayer Leverkusen will host current leaders Bayern Munich at the BayArena on Saturday.
Leverkusen, held to a 0-0 draw by Wolfsburg on February 8, sit second with 46 points, while Bayern extended their lead to eight points with a 3-0 win over Werder Bremen on February 7.
Bayer Leverkusen
The champions were kept from scoring for the first time in 18 matches by Wolfsburg, with Nordi Mukiele notably missing a golden chance in the 22nd minute, failing to convert from close range after a corner despite the goal being unguarded.
While it’s hard to fault Xabi Alonso’s side this season – they’ve reached the DFB-Pokal semi-finals, advanced to the Champions League last 16, and sit second in the Bundesliga – they are on pace for 78 points, 12 fewer than their 2023/24 tally.
Leverkusen have netted 17 goals in their last six league games but have managed just three clean sheets in their previous 12 Bundesliga matches.
They’ve faced Bayern twice this season, drawing 1-1 in the league on September 28 and winning 1-0 in the DFB-Pokal on December 3, aided by Manuel Neuer’s 17th-minute red card.
Their draw with Wolfsburg extended an unbeaten run to five matches (three wins), while they’ve triumphed in 14 of their last 17 outings. Unbeaten in 16 home games, Leverkusen have also won their last 10 at BayArena, scoring three goals in three of their last four.
Team News
Leverkusen have a mostly fit squad but will be without centre-back Jeanuel Belocian for the rest of the season.
Edmond Tapsoba, Jonathan Tah, and Piero Hincapie are expected to form the defensive line in front of goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky.
Victor Boniface and Florian Wirtz are set to occupy two of the three forward spots, while Nathan Tella could feature in attack due to Martin Terrier’s season-ending injury.
Bayern Munich
Bayern head into the match after a dominant win over Werder Bremen, conceding just 0.13 xG and two shots while generating over four xG themselves.
Vincent Kompany’s side have scored three or more goals in 19 matches this season, with 65 Bundesliga goals putting them on pace for 105 — a tally bettered only twice since 1905-06.
Though Bayern edged Celtic 2-1 in the Champions League midweek, they looked vulnerable to counter-attacks. Defensive struggles persist, with 11 goals conceded in their last seven games, but they have won their last five matches and nine of their last 10 in all competitions.
Their away form has been inconsistent, winning four, drawing one, and losing two of their last seven on the road.
Team News
Bayern will be without Alphonso Davies and backup goalkeeper Daniel Peretz for Saturday’s match. Raphael Guerreiro is expected to fill in at left-back, alongside Josip Stanisic, Dayot Upamecano, and Kim Min-jae in defence.
Joao Palhinha is a doubt due to illness, which could see Joshua Kimmich partner with Leon Goretzka in a double pivot if the Portuguese midfielder is unavailable.
Conclusion
Leverkusen must win to keep their title hopes alive, which could see them leave defensive gaps while pushing forward. Although Bayern are likely to find the net, Leverkusen will back themselves to exploit Bayern’s defensive vulnerabilities and keep their title challenge alive.
Verdict: Home win
Best odds: 2/1
Bookmaker: Olympusbet
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