Verdict: Away win
Best odds: 41/50
Bookmaker: ZetBet
Borussia Dortmund, already secure in their qualification, will host a Paris Saint-Germain team still vying for a spot in the Champions League last-16 draw in an exciting Group F finale on Wednesday.
A single point is all the hosts need to secure their first-place position in the group. However, Luis Enrique’s PSG must secure a victory at the Signal Iduna Park to be certain of going through, or risk leaving their hopes to chance.
Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund started this season’s Champions League in the challenging ‘group of death’ with a disappointing 2-0 defeat against their upcoming opponents at the Parc des Princes. However, they’ve since showcased their European prowess, securing a spot in the knockout rounds with a third consecutive victory in continental competition on matchday five.
Following back-to-back wins against Newcastle United, Edin Terzic’s team continued their impressive run by defeating AC Milan 3-1 at San Siro. Marco Reus initiated the scoring spree, followed by goals from Jamie Bynoe-Gittens and Karim Adeyemi, with Samuel Chukwueze scoring the only goal for the Rossoneri.
Dortmund have accumulated a commendable 10 points out of possible 15 in the group stage and regardless of the outcome this week, they’ve sealed a place in the last-16 draw. However, their three-point lead over PSG puts them at risk of dropping to second place if they lose to Enrique’s side in their upcoming clash.
Recent Champions League performances at the Signal Iduna Park indicate Dortmund’s strong position going into this contest, having kept clean sheets in their last four home games in the tournament—a record for the club. Nevertheless, their domestic form in December hasn’t been as positive.
BVB faced a draw against league leaders Bayer Leverkusen, were eliminated from the DFB-Pokal by Stuttgart, and suffered a 3-2 defeat at home to RB Leipzig in Saturday’s Bundesliga fixture. A red card for Mats Hummels in the 15th minute of the Leipzig game set the stage for Dortmund’s disappointing performance.
Team News
Hummels’ forthcoming domestic suspension doesn’t impact his eligibility in the Champions League, but Dortmund will be missing an experienced player for Wednesday’s game as Emre Can serves a suspension due to accumulating three yellow cards in Group H.
This absence could potentially create a midfield challenge for Terzic, especially if Marcel Sabitzer remains sidelined with a calf problem. Additionally, Felix Nmecha’s absence due to a hip issue until 2024 further complicates the situation. However, Terzic remains optimistic about Sabitzer’s recovery to fill in for the suspended Can.
There’s hope for Marius Wolf’s return from an ankle problem, a timely possibility considering that Thomas Meunier isn’t registered for Dortmund’s UCL squad. Nevertheless, Julian Ryerson (knee), Youssoufa Moukoko (hamstring), Sebastien Haller (knee), and Julian Duranville (thigh) are all unavailable for the upcoming match.
Paris Saint-Germain
In an incident that Newcastle supporters found calamitous, a last-minute refereeing decision spared Paris Saint-Germain’s blushes two weeks ago against the Magpies, averting what seemed like an imminent defeat at the Parc des Princes following Alexander Isak’s first-half goal.
PSG had numerous opportunities to equalize, facing both their own profligacy and an exceptional performance by Nick Pope. However, with only seconds left on the clock, Tino Livramento was adjudged to have handled the ball inside the box, giving Kylian Mbappe the chance to convert a late equalizer from the penalty spot.
Despite protests from incensed Newcastle fans who argued that the ball had initially struck Livramento’s thigh before hitting his elbow, the decision stood. PSG maintained their position at the helm for progression and will secure a spot in the last-16, as well as a first-place finish, if they win the upcoming Wednesday evening clash.
However, a draw would leave PSG vulnerable to being overtaken by Newcastle if the Magpies defeat AC Milan. If PSG were to lose in Germany, they would rely on a draw at St James’ Park to secure second place, with even Milan standing a chance at overtaking them.
PSG’s recent away record in the Champions League, with a three-game losing streak, doesn’t instill great confidence among the team. Additionally, they haven’t kept a clean sheet away from the Parc des Princes in the competition since October 2020. On the other hand, they have never experienced four successive European away defeats.
While their Ligue 1 title campaign had a lukewarm start, a 2-1 victory against Nantes over the weekend marked their eighth consecutive win in the top-flight. In their previous five encounters with Dortmund, Paris Saint-Germain have only lost once.
Team News
On matchday five, PSG’s Ousmane Dembele also received a significant booking, joining Emre Can in accumulating cautions, and making himself unavailable for the Dortmund trip. This situation might offer Bradley Barcola a chance for a starting role, especially after the 21-year-old scored his first goal for Paris Saint-Germain against Nantes over the weekend.
The victory against Nantes also witnessed the return of teenage sensation Warren Zaire-Emery, who played for 30 minutes after recovering from an ankle sprain. Initially expected to be out until 2024, it remains uncertain if Enrique is willing to start him against Dortmund.
Unfortunately for PSG, Nuno Mendes (hamstring), Presnel Kimpembe (Achilles), Fabian Ruiz (shoulder), Keylor Navas (back), and Sergio Rico (head trauma) are all unavailable for selection. However, there have been no fresh injury concerns arising from the win over Nantes.
Conclusion
With outcome almost certain to play a huge role when it comes to their progress from the group, PSG will go to Germany with a strong desire to win, and Dortmund’s poor defensive record at home, along with the home team’s injury problems, will play in favour of the Ligue 1 champions as well.
Verdict: Away win
Best odds: 41/50
Bookmaker: ZetBet
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