Prediction: Brazil vs Colombia

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 33/50

Bookmaker: ZetBet

Brazil and Colombia face off in the headline fixture of matchday 13 in the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers on Thursday night.

Both teams had a frustrating November window, falling behind the leaders, but both remain on course to secure their spots at next summer’s finals.

Brazil

The expanded World Cup format has given South American teams an advantage, particularly Brazil, who would have been at serious risk of missing the finals under the old 32-team setup.

Brazil head into this week’s matches sitting fifth, a position that previously only offered a playoff spot, with Paraguay close behind. However, with the top six now qualifying directly, their position is far more secure.

The Selecao have managed just 18 points from 36, a disappointing return. But after crucial victories against Peru and Chile in October, dropping points to Venezuela and Uruguay in November didn’t prove too damaging.

Dorival Junior remains at the helm, though it’s hard to imagine he will still be in charge by the time the finals arrive next summer, given both the underwhelming qualifying campaign and last year’s Copa America struggles.

With a trip to Argentina looming next week, securing a win here would help ease the pressure ahead of that intense fixture, where more points will still be needed.

Remarkably, Brazil will also be keeping an eye on Bolivia and Venezuela’s results this month, hoping those sides don’t gain ground, to avoid facing the same high-stakes pressure they experienced in October when must-win victories were needed against Chile and Peru.

Next up for Brazil is Colombia, a side they’ve never lost to at home in 14 meetings, including their memorable World Cup quarter-final triumph in Fortaleza back in 2014.

Luis Diaz’s brace in the reverse fixture in November 2023 marked Colombia’s first-ever win over Brazil in World Cup qualifying, putting them in an excellent position to book their place in the finals.

Team News

Neymar had been called up after a 17-month absence, but injury forced him out once again, with Endrick stepping in as his replacement.

Notable omissions from the squad include Lucas Paqueta, Ederson, and Igor Jesus, while veterans Lucas Moura and Oscar — both now back with Sao Paulo — have also been left out.

At the back, injuries have sidelined Eder Militao, Bremer, and Danilo, with goalkeeper Ederson Moraes and forward Richarlison also unavailable due to recent injuries.

Colombia

After an outstanding start that saw manager Nestor Lorenzo go unbeaten in his first 25 games, Colombia have now suffered four defeats in their last seven matches.

Losing in the Copa America final may have contributed to their recent dip in qualifying form, but several concerning results cannot simply be attributed to complacency.

Lorenzo’s side secured a routine win over Chile, but ended 2024 with three losses in four matches, including a defeat to Bolivia, despite playing against 10 men for 70 minutes, and a disappointing home loss to Ecuador, who were also a man down for 65 minutes.

While Bolivia’s altitude can partly explain that setback, there were no excuses against Ecuador, as Colombia were incredibly profligate in front of goal, failing to score from 26 attempts over the full 90 minutes.

A dramatic loss in Uruguay further hurt confidence. Despite equalising in the 96th minute, Manuel Ugarte’s late winner — 11 minutes into stoppage time — allowed Marcelo Bielsa’s side to avenge their Copa America semi-final defeat.

Colombia have slipped from second to fourth in just two months, but they still hold a healthy six-point cushion inside the top six. Even if they lose in Brazil, a home game against Paraguay next week offers a good opportunity to bounce back.

Team News

James Rodriguez, who burst onto the world stage at the 2014 World Cup in Brazil by scoring in the quarter-final loss to the Selecao, is expected to return and captain the team for this clash.

Luis Diaz’s form at Liverpool has dipped significantly in recent weeks, but he remains the key figure for the visitors, while Jhon Duran’s call-up was not impacted by his recent transfer to Saudi Arabia.

Crystal Palace’s Daniel Munoz is among the most in-form players in the Colombian squad, and both he and teammate Jefferson Lerma had a rest weekend, with the Eagles not in action due to the Carabao Cup final on Sunday.

Conclusion

Travelling to Brazil was once considered the most intimidating fixture in international football, but the Selecao have earned just 11 points from their six home matches so far, which will give Colombia plenty of hope ahead of this encounter.

However, Brazil have shown some improvement recently, securing eight points from their last four games. With a fully-fit squad at Dorival’s disposal, they should manage to edge past Colombia, who have been struggling in recent matches.

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 33/50

Bookmaker: ZetBet