Prediction: Chelsea vs Morecambe

Verdict: Total home goals over 3.5

Best odds: 8/13

Bookmaker: Betfair

Chelsea’s Premier League title hopes have faltered, but the Blues aim to secure their place in the FA Cup fourth round when they host Morecambe in Saturday’s third-round clash.

While Enzo Maresca’s side enters the tournament at this stage, Morecambe has already defeated Worthing and Bradford City to earn a trip to Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea

Despite Maresca’s earlier insistence that Chelsea were not title contenders—potentially more mind games than genuine doubt—their recent form supports his claims. After eight consecutive wins across all competitions in late 2024, Chelsea has failed to win in their last four matches, collecting just two points from a possible 12 in the Premier League.

Once prolific in attack, Chelsea has scored only twice in their last 360 minutes, including a Cole Palmer goal canceled out in a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace last weekend. Now trailing league leaders Liverpool by 10 points—who also have a game in hand—Chelsea risks losing further ground to Newcastle and Manchester City in the race for Champions League spots.

Despite their struggles, Chelsea has a strong FA Cup record, winning 35 of their last 36 matches against lower-league opposition, the exception being a 2015 loss to Bradford City. A surprise exit against Morecambe seems unlikely.

Team News

Chelsea’s selection is affected by injuries and suspensions. Wesley Fofana, caught in a public dispute over his recovery timeline, is ruled out, as are Omari Kellyman (hamstring), Mykhaylo Mudryk (suspended), Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (unspecified), and Benoit Badiashile (thigh). However, Romeo Lavia and Carney Chukwuemeka could return. Significant squad rotation is expected, though Ben Chilwell and Cesare Casadei are unlikely to feature as they seek moves away.

Morecambe

Chelsea boast an 80% win rate in third-round FA Cup ties, the best among teams with at least 10 appearances at this stage. However, Morecambe, still without a fourth-round appearance, head to Stamford Bridge having already matched their best-ever FA Cup performance by reaching this stage for the fourth time in five seasons. They secured their spot with wins over Worthing and Bradford City, the latter thanks to a Jordan Slew goal.

Despite this achievement, Morecambe have struggled in recent form, going winless in five matches after advancing to the third round. However, they’ve shown signs of recovery with victories over Carlisle United and Tranmere Rovers since Christmas.

The Shrimps remain in the League Two relegation zone, four points behind 22nd-placed Swindon Town, but their away form – 14 of their 20 points earned on the road – provides a slight source of optimism. Still, a giant-killing at Stamford Bridge seems unlikely, as Chelsea comfortably won their last meeting in this competition 4-0 at the same stage four years ago.

Team News

Morecambe manager Adams is likely to field the same squad that recently defeated Tranmere, including Liverpool loanee Rhys Williams, who has extended his stay until the season’s end. Adam Lewis, a permanent 2024 signing from Anfield, could join Williams in the defence. Lewis started in the second-round win over Bradford, though David Tutonda was preferred against Tranmere.

Lewis leads Morecambe with five assists across all competitions, while winger Ben Tollitt, with eight goals this season, remains their primary scoring threat.

Conclusion

Despite losing significant ground in the Premier League title race, smashing a team like Morecambe to pieces shouldn’t pose a problem for Chelsea.

Verdict: Total home goals over 3.5

Best odds: 8/13

Bookmaker: Betfair