Prediction: Chelsea vs Napoli

13th March 2012

Chelsea were lucky to come away with a two-goal defeat from San Paolo, but the goal they scored through Juan Mata now gives slim chances to qualify for the quarter-finals. Napoli not only outclassed the Blues in the first leg, but went on to extend their winning run to six games in all competitions, meaning that Azzurri can be forgiven for feeling optimistic before the trip to Stamford Bridge.

Those who believed Andre Villas-Boas was the main problem are probably gloating now that Blues have won both games since the Portuguese was sacked, but hard-fought victories over Birmingham and Stoke are not enough to make me believe Chelsea have turned things around. The Blues still have major issues in their build-up play, and continue to look like a group of people that doesn’t want to be where they are at the moment. All their weaknesses were blatantly exposed at San Paolo Stadium, where Chelsea were completely beaten despite taking the early lead and they can consider themselves very fortunate not to have conceded more than three goals. The Stamford Bridge outfit now have no choice but to attack their opponents from the off, and that is going to leave them increasingly prone to Napoli counterattacks, something that the Blues know too well about after the first leg at San Paolo. Roberto Di Matteo is hoping Branislav Ivanovic will be fit to play, whereas Michael Essien, Juan Mata and Daniel Sturridge should return after they were rested at the weekend.

Napoli found themselves in real problems when Juan Manuel Mata took advantage of Paolo Cannavaro’s mistake to score the opening goal at San Paolo completely against the run of play, but rather than starting to panic, the Azzurri just kept pressing their opponents and were later rewarded for their efforts. Walter Mazzarri’s side overturned the deficit before half-time and increased their lead in the second period to give Chelsea a very difficult task in the return leg. Boosted by the impressive performance against the Blues, the Partenopei kept the rich vein of form by beating Inter, Parma and Cagliari, with six goals scored at the weekend more than enough to strike fear into Chelsea defenders. Being two goals up, Napoli can play a waiting game at Stamford Bridge and hit the hosts on the break, which is an approach the Azzurri have perfected to maximum over the years. Gianluca Grava and Miguel Britos may be sidelined through injury, but nobody is missing out from the preferred starting line-up.

Conclusion

Chelsea are under extreme pressure after the dismal showing in the first leg, and, in all fairness, I don’t think they can win this game. Napoli are on top of their game at the moment, and their counterattacking style is expected to yield great results at Stamford Bridge.

Verdict: Napoli with +1 Asian handicap

Best Odds: 4/7

Bookmaker: Paddy Power