Wednesday, April 23, 2025

Prediction: Everton vs Arsenal

Verdict: Draw

Best odds: 12/5

Bookmaker: ZetBet

Former Everton colleagues will reunite on the Goodison Park touchline for one final time on Saturday lunchtime, as David Moyes’s Toffees welcome Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal in the Premier League.

While Everton suffered a derby defeat to Liverpool in their last outing, the Gunners solidified their grip on second place with a 2-1 home victory over Fulham.

Arsenal

On a day when several former Gunners – Emile Smith Rowe, Bernd Leno, Willian, and Alex Iwobi—returned to their old stomping ground, it was fitting that another familiar face stole the spotlight during Arsenal’s London derby against Fulham.

After stand-in striker Mikel Merino opened the scoring with a deflected effort, Bukayo Saka, making his first appearance of 2025 following a serious hamstring injury, marked his return with a back-post header just six minutes after coming on, followed by an emotional embrace with Arsenal’s strength and conditioning coach.

Saka’s goal proved decisive, as Rodrigo Muniz’s late strike denied Arsenal a clean sheet but not all three points, keeping them four points clear of Nottingham Forest in second place.

While Arsenal’s title hopes are fading, their grip on Champions League qualification remains firm, easing the pressure ahead of their looming double-header with Real Madrid.

Before shifting focus to the Bernabeu, Arsenal aim to extend their unbeaten Premier League away run to 11 matches. However, Merseyside – whether red or blue – has not been a happy hunting ground for the Gunners in recent years.

Team News

Arsenal’s injury woes continue to pile up despite the welcome return of Saka, with three fresh concerns emerging from their London derby win over Fulham.

Ben White was sidelined before the match with a minor issue, while Gabriel Magalhaes (hamstring) and Jurrien Timber (knee) picked up injuries during the game. The full extent of their problems is yet to be confirmed, but early signs suggest Gabriel’s injury could be particularly concerning. As a result, Jakub Kiwior is likely to step into the defensive line, while Thomas Partey is expected to deputize at right-back once again.

Elsewhere, Arsenal’s absentee list remains lengthy, with Riccardo Calafiori (knee), Takehiro Tomiyasu (knee), Gabriel Jesus (ACL), and Kai Havertz (hamstring) still unavailable. However, after successfully completing a 30-minute cameo against Fulham, Saka is in contention for his first start of 2025.

Everton

Arsenal’s recent trips to Merseyside have been anything but fruitful, with just three wins from their last 26 Premier League away matches against Everton and Liverpool combined—a statistic that bodes well for Moyes as he looks to outmaneuver his former apprentice at Goodison Park.

Everton will be eager to channel their frustration into a strong response after seeing their nine-game unbeaten Premier League run snapped in Wednesday’s narrow 1-0 defeat to Liverpool. The Toffees were fortunate to finish with 11 men following James Tarkowski’s reckless challenge on Alexis Mac Allister, but their resilient display still saw them suffer a first league loss since January 15.

That result also extended Everton’s winless league streak to five matches, with four consecutive draws preceding their derby defeat. However, with a comfortable 14-point cushion above the relegation zone, their top-flight status is not under immediate threat.

While Moyes’s return has reinvigorated the Toffees, defensive lapses have crept in—Diogo Jota’s winner in midweek ensured Everton have now conceded in eight successive matches across all competitions, as well as six of their last seven home games.

Arsenal emerged victorious at Goodison Park last season, ending a five-match winless run at the venue with a 1-0 triumph. However, after frustrating the Gunners with a goalless draw at the Emirates in December, Everton now have the rare opportunity to keep clean sheets in both league meetings with Arsenal for the first time in 112 years.

Team News

James Tarkowski could consider himself fortunate to be available after the PGMOL admitted his challenge on Alexis Mac Allister warranted a red card –  he remains eligible for selection.

Meanwhile, Orel Mangala (knee), Dominic Calvert-Lewin (thigh), and Dwight McNeil (knee) are sidelined, though Iliman Ndiaye has recovered and made a second-half appearance in the defeat to Liverpool.

Moyes may contemplate Ndiaye replacing Jack Harrison in attack, but he is likely to keep faith with his usual setup, resisting the urge to deploy a five-man defensive line.

Conclusion

Everton may not be the most free-scoring side, but they will fancy their chances against an Arsenal defense weakened by injuries. With the Gunners missing key defensive personnel, the Toffees could find openings to exploit.

Meanwhile, with a crucial Champions League quarter-final against Real Madrid on the horizon, Arsenal’s priority will be avoiding further injuries. Arteta’s men may not go full throttle, and a hard-fought draw could be an outcome both sides accept.

Verdict: Draw

Best odds: 12/5

Bookmaker: ZetBet

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Veselin Trajkovic


Vesko is a football writer that likes to observe the game for what it is, focusing on teams, players and their roles, formations, tactics, rather than stats. He follows the English Premier League closely, Liverpool FC in particular. His articles have been published on seven different football blogs.

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