Prediction: Germany vs Bosnia-Herzegovina

Verdict: Total home goals over 2.5

Best odds: 4/7

Bookmaker: Betfair

Germany approach their UEFA Nations League clash with Bosnia-Herzegovina in Freiburg with one eye on securing top spot in League A Group 3. Julian Nagelsmann’s side have already guaranteed a quarterfinal berth and need just a draw to virtually ensure first place.

Meanwhile, Bosnia-Herzegovina, despite their poor form, still have a slim chance of advancing but must produce an extraordinary turnaround in the final matches.

Germany

Driven by the pain of a quarter-final exit at their home European Championships this summer, Germany now have the chance to amend their last-eight disappointment. Nagelsmann’s team secured a Nations League quarter-final spot with two games to spare.

Having dropped just two points in their first four Group 3 matches, Die Mannschaft edged Bosnia 2-1 last month thanks to Deniz Undav, before another unlikely hero sealed a 1-0 win over the Netherlands in their latest outing.

Debutant Jamie Leweling netted the decisive goal against the Dutch just past the hour mark, securing a five-point lead over Hungary and the Netherlands and leaving Germany on the verge of clinching the group.

A victory on Saturday would ensure top spot for Germany, with only a highly unlikely scenario – Hungary beating the Netherlands and thrashing Germany by over five goals – threatening their position. While such an outcome seems inconceivable, the 2014 World Cup winners aim to dispel any lingering uncertainty with a win, which would also end Bosnia-Herzegovina’s slim hopes of a top-two finish.

Team News

Stuttgart striker Deniz Undav, who scored twice in October’s victory over Bosnia, will miss Saturday’s match due to injury. Additionally, Angelo Stiller has withdrawn from the Germany squad after sustaining a muscular problem.

Bayer Leverkusen’s Florian Wirtz is also a doubt, as he recovers from illness, and Nagelsmann will be without the suspended Nico Schlotterbeck as well.

Nagelsmann’s squad includes only one uncapped player this month: Manchester City goalkeeper Stefan Ortega. He joins one-cap goalkeepers Oliver Baumann and Alexander Nubel in the competition for the starting spot.

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Since the Nations League’s inception in 2018/19, Bosnia-Herzegovina have alternated between League A and League B, and their current campaign suggests the cycle of promotion followed by relegation may continue unless a miracle unfolds this month.

The Golden Lilies have collected just one point from a possible 12 in League A Group 3, holding Hungary to a goalless draw on September 10. However, they suffered a 2-0 defeat in the reverse fixture, with Dominik Szoboszlai scoring both goals.

After that loss, along with a 5-2 drubbing by the Netherlands and a defeat to Germany, Bosnia must win and hope the Hungary-Netherlands game ends in a draw to keep their slim knockout hopes alive.

A more plausible scenario sees Sergej Barbarez’s side relegated back to League B, as their winless streak across all competitions has now stretched to 10 matches, including nine defeats, since their 2023 Euros qualifier win over Liechtenstein.

Their only prior visit to Germany ended in a 3-1 friendly loss in 2010, where current captain Edin Dzeko gave Bosnia an early lead before Philipp Lahm and Bastian Schweinsteiger spearheaded a comeback.

Team News

Bosnia will also be without defender Nikola Katic, who is suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards. This issue is compounded by the absence of Atalanta’s Sead Kolasinac, who has withdrawn from the squad due to injury.

To address the defensive gaps, either Nihad Mujakic or Tarik Muharemovic—currently on loan at Sassuolo from Juventus—is expected to step in. Meanwhile, veteran captain Edin Dzeko is set to earn his 139th cap in attack.

At 38, the former Manchester City title winner continues to shine for Fenerbahce, arriving in national team camp with an impressive tally of 11 goals in 19 appearances this season.

Conclusion

In their home fixture, Bosnia gave Germany a respectable challenge, but now they face a Mannschaft side that, despite Nagelsmann acknowledging some injury concerns, remains formidable.

Saturday’s hosts are expected to secure a dominant victory over their one-point visitors, effectively deciding both teams’ fates ahead of the final matchday.

Verdict: Total home goals over 2.5

Best odds: 4/7

Bookmaker: Betfair