Prediction: Germany vs Italy

Verdict: Both teams to score

Best odds: 20/23

Bookmaker: Betfair

On top in a clash between two football giants, Germany will look to secure their spot in the UEFA Nations League semifinals by completing the task against Italy on Sunday evening.

Following their first-leg victory at San Siro on Thursday, Die Mannschaft are well positioned to reach the finals tournament for the first time – an event they would host if the Azzurri are eliminated.

Germany

Coming from behind to secure a 2-1 advantage in their quarterfinal tie, Germany turned to captain Joshua Kimmich for inspiration, with the Bayern Munich midfielder providing assists for both goals in Milan.

Never hesitant to make changes when needed, head coach Julian Nagelsmann made two substitutions at half-time in response to falling behind, and it quickly paid off as striker Tim Kleindienst headed in a Kimmich cross to level the score.

Returning to the international stage after more than a year out of the squad, Leon Goretzka marked his comeback with a well-taken header for the winner, giving Germany their first victory on Italian soil since February 1986.

Nagelsmann’s team are now unbeaten in their last eight Nations League fixtures and, looking back over the past year, have recorded 11 wins and four draws from their last 16 matches in all competitions.

Despite some personnel changes caused by injuries and retirements, Germany are participating in the knockout stages for the first time, having fallen short of the finals in each of the previous three editions.

Eager to add a rare missing title to their collection before focusing on next year’s World Cup, they will look to seal their semifinal place in Dortmund, where either Denmark or Portugal would be waiting in the last four.

Team News

After opting for Mainz forward Jonathan Burkardt over Tim Kleindienst in Milan — both tied on 15 Bundesliga goals this season — Nagelsmann may reverse that decision following Kleindienst’s game-changing display.

Kleindienst has now scored three times in as many international appearances, having previously netted twice against Bosnia-Herzegovina in November, though Stuttgart’s Deniz Undav remains another option up front.

Leon Goretzka, named Nagelsmann’s unofficial ‘Man of the Match’ at San Siro, is expected to retain his place in midfield, while Robert Andrich and Angelo Stiller will battle Borussia Dortmund’s Pascal Gross – eager to feature in front of a home crowd – for a starting role.

Rotation should be minimal due to key absences, with Kai Havertz, Benjamin Henrichs, Felix Nmecha, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Marc-Andre ter Stegen, and Florian Wirtz all unavailable through injury.

Italy

Still aiming to reach the semifinals for a third straight edition, Italy failed to fully capitalise on their bright start Thursday, when a deflected cross from Matteo Politano allowed Sandro Tonali to open the scoring with their first attack.

That early advantage gave the Azzurri a narrow lead until shortly after halftime, when their recurring vulnerability at set pieces resurfaced, allowing Germany to score the winner from a corner kick.

Despite applying sustained late pressure and forcing Oliver Baumann into several important saves, Italy ultimately fell to consecutive defeats for the first time since the era of Cesare Prandelli over ten years ago.

They had ended 2024 with a 3-1 home loss to France, which saw them finish second in League A Group 2 and draw Germany in the quarterfinals.

Having won Euro 2020 but missed out on qualifying for two World Cups on either side of that triumph, La Nazionale’s main focus remains securing a place at the 2026 global finals, though overturning this tie would be a major success for coach Luciano Spalletti.

Not only would progressing on aggregate allow Italy to host the Nations League finals in June, but it would also keep alive their hopes of winning UEFA’s newest international competition for the first time.

Team News

Italy will be without Serie A’s current top scorer, Mateo Retegui, and first-choice left wing-back Federico Dimarco, while doubts linger over the fitness of Riccardo Calafiori.

The Arsenal defender played the full 90 minutes on Thursday but was seen limping after the match following an awkward fall, meaning Alessandro Buongiorno is on standby to slot into the left side of Italy’s back three.

There is some good news for Spalletti, with versatile wide player Andrea Cambiaso expected to be available, and Lazio captain Mattia Zaccagni likely to benefit from three more days of rest and recovery.

In midfield, Sandro Tonali is certain to feature, having already recorded two goals and two assists in seven Nations League appearances this season.

Conclusion

With nothing to lose, Italy will go all-out to win this game and overturn the tie. They’re likely to hit the back of the German net at least once, but it’s questionable whether they have what it takes to actually beat the hosts. With plenty of pace and creativity in their ranks, Die Mannschaft will probably find ways to exploit the space left by the visitors’ attacking forays.

Verdict: Both teams to score

Best odds: 20/23

Bookmaker: Betfair