Verdict: Home win
Best odds: 4/5
Bookmaker: 888sport
As far as European football in concerned, this weekend will be all about the Serie A and the Milan Derby, popularly known as the Derby della Madonnina, on Saturday afternoon, when Inter Milan will nominally be hosting AC Milan at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza as part of the round 24 of the 2021-22 season in the Italian top flight.
After a long time, the clash between these two fierce rivals is extremely significant in terms of the race for the Scudetto.
Inter Milan
Having won the Serie A title last season, ousting Juventus from the throne after a decade, the Nerazzurri have set out to defend the crown and they’re looking very good at the moment. Topping the table with 53 points to their name, Simone Inzaghi’s team are four points clear of Napoli in second place, and that with a game in hand on all their close competitors.
Inter’s last defeat in any competition happened in early December, when they were beaten by Real Madrid in the final round of the Champions League group stage. They’ve played eight matches since, winning seven and drawing once.
Their last-six run consists of a 1-0 win at home over Torino, a 2-1 home win over Lazio, a a 2-1 triumph over Juventus in the Supercoppa Italiana final, a goalless draw away to Atalanta, a 3-2 win over Empoli at home, and a 2-1 home win over Venezia.
Over in the Champions League, Inter finished second to Real in Group D, edging out Sheriff Tiraspol and Shakhtar Donetsk. The round-of-16 draw wasn’t too favourable for them though; they’ll be welcoming Premier League giants Liverpool on February 16th, before travelling to Anfield on March 8th.
Team News
Inzaghi will have a few issues to resolve in the attacking department, with Joaquin Correa out of action most likely for the rest of the month with a thigh injury. Quite apart from that, Lautaro Martinez and Alexis Sanchez were involved in the World Cup qualifiers with Argentina and Chile, respectively, and they’re not very likely to be ready to play again so soon after travelling across the Atlantic. Wing-back Robin Gosens, who arrived from Atalanta in January, is injured.
Inter also signed Felipe Caicedo from Genoa last month, and the 33-year-old will be hoping to start alongside the 35-year-old Edin Dzeko upfront.
It will be interesting to see if Inzaghi goes with Matteo Darmian or Denzel Dumfries as the right wing-back in his preferred 3-5-2 shape.
AC Milan
Speaking of facing Liverpool in the Champions League, Inzaghi and his staff will surely be looking at their city rivals’ clashes with the Merseysiders in UEFA’s elite competition. Having lost both at home and at Anfield, Milan finished bottom of Group B, with Atletico Madrid and FC Porto wedged in between them and the Reds. Thus their involvement in Europe ended for the season.
But in the Serie A, Milan are still very much in the race for the top, sitting third at the moment with the same tally as Napoli, only four points behind Inter. Their position therefore underlines the competitive importance of this particular derby; a win would take them within arm reach of Inter. A defeat would leave them far behind.
Like Inter, the Rossoneri have shown fine form in their last-six run, with one surprising stain on it, though. It begins with a 2-4 win away to Empoli. Then came a 3-1 home triumph over AS Roma, followed by a 0-3 win away to Venezia and a 3-1 win at home over Genoa. In mid-January, however, they suffered a shocking defeat at home at the hands of Spezia, before playing a goalless draw at home against Juventus.
Team News
The main issue coach Stefano Pioli faces is upfront, just like Inzaghi. Zlatan Ibrahimovic limped off the pitch in the Juventus clash and has been training away from the rest of the team since. Ante Rebic is a doubt as well.
If Ibrahimovic isn’t fit, former Arsenal and Chelsea striker Olivier Giroud is the obvious choice to be his replacement in the starting XI. Alexis Saelemaekers and Raphael Leao should be attacking from the flanks, and Pioli could choose to employ Franck Kessie in an advanced midfield role. The Ivory Coast international impressed in that position against Empoli, scoring twice, and he’s now back from the African Cup of Nations.
Conclusion
On paper, this should be one of those matches where it’s more important for either side not to lose than to win. Inter will want to maintain their advantage rather than risk it reducing to just one point, while Milan might want to keep the gap as is and hope to show greater consistency than Inter over the remaining part of the season to close it down, rather than contemplate the possibility of it growing to seven.
However, when it comes to derbies of this magnitude, there’s rarely any calculation, and that makes it very difficult to call when the teams are as close in quality as these two are at the moment. Still, there is a reason why Inter are ahead.
Verdict: Home win
Best odds: 4/5
Bookmaker: 888sport
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