Prediction: Inter Milan vs Red Star Belgrade

Verdict: Total home goals over 2.5

Best odds: 8/13

Bookmaker: Betfair

Following a hard-fought draw in their Champions League opener, Inter Milan will aim to secure their first group-stage victory on Tuesday when they host Red Star Belgrade at San Siro.

While Inter have established themselves as a dominant force at home, Red Star Belgrade are still searching for their first away win in the modern Champions League era, having last won on the road during the European Cup days.

Inter Milan

Inter Milan entered the 2023-24 Champions League campaign as runners-up from the previous season, where they narrowly lost to Manchester City in the final. On the opening matchday of this season, Inter faced City once again and executed a solid defensive game plan, becoming only the second team to prevent Pep Guardiola’s side from scoring at home in the Champions League.

Inter’s defensive strength is evident, having kept 13 clean sheets in their last 22 matches at this level, the most by any team since the 2022-23 season. Additionally, they’ve only lost two of their last 16 games in the competition. Their unbeaten run at home in the Champions League has now stretched to nine games, their best streak since winning the 2010 final against Bayern Munich.

Before their recent 3-2 win over Udinese, Inter had gone three games without a victory, including a painful defeat in the Derby della Madonnina against AC Milan. Davide Frattesi quickly eased concerns by scoring in the first minute, and Lautaro Martinez, who had yet to score this season, added two crucial goals to secure the victory and rebuild Inter’s momentum ahead of the Red Star Belgrade clash.

Team News

Inter’s main concern ahead of their first Champions League home game centers on the fitness of key midfielder Nicolo Barella, who missed the weekend fixture due to a thigh injury. If Barella is unavailable, either Piotr Zielinski or Davide Frattesi is expected to step in as his replacement.

The only confirmed absentee for Inter is Canadian wing-back Tajon Buchanan. With a demanding league game against Torino on the horizon, coach Simone Inzaghi may opt to rotate his squad. Regardless, Inter’s lineup will feature a wealth of experience, as evidenced by the starting XI in their previous Champions League match against Manchester City, which had an average age of nearly 30 years, making it the second-oldest team of the opening matchday.

Red Star Belgrade

Inter Milan have faced Red Star Belgrade twice before, back in the 1980-81 European Cup quarter-finals, where Inter advanced with a 2-1 aggregate win. Red Star have struggled historically against Serie A teams, having not won in their last eight matches against Italian clubs—a streak that stretches back to December 2005.

Last season, Red Star finished at the bottom of their Champions League group, losing five of six games. However, they rebounded domestically, securing their seventh consecutive Serbian league title and qualifying for this year’s Champions League after defeating Bodo/Glimt in the playoffs.

In their first group-stage match this season, Red Star fell 2-1 to Benfica after conceding two early goals, despite Felicio Milson scoring late on. However, they bounced back impressively with a 4-0 victory in the Eternal Derby against Partizan Belgrade and a 2-1 win over Zeleznicar Pancevo, keeping them unbeaten in their domestic league.

While Red Star have been dominant at home, with eight wins in nine league matches and a goal difference of 27 scored to just five conceded, their form in the Champions League has been a different story. They have lost all nine of their away games in the competition so far, a record that only two other teams have matched.

Team News

Red Star Belgrade will be without Ognjen Mimovic (foot injury) and long-term absentee Vladimir Lucic (knee) for their trip to face Inter Milan at San Siro.

In central midfield, Rade Krunic—who previously won the Scudetto with AC Milan in 2022—partners with Timi Elsnik. Elsnik was outstanding in Red Star’s opening match against Benfica, leading his team in several categories: he created the most chances (four), completed the most passes (58), executed the most line-breaking passes (16), and recovered possession more than any other teammate (eight times).

Up front, Cherif Ndiaye – who recently netted a hat-trick in the Eternal Derby – will battle with Bruno Duarte for a starting spot. Ndiaye is Red Star’s top scorer this season, having scored seven goals so far.

Conclusion

Inter Milan enter the match as clear favorites, boasting nine wins from their last 13 Champions League home games. After securing a confidence-boosting win at the weekend, Inzaghi’s side should be near their best and poised to capitalize on Red Star Belgrade’s poor record away from home in European competitions.

Verdict: Total home goals over 2.5

Best odds: 8/13

Bookmaker: Betfair