Prediction: Italy vs Germany

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 17/10

Bookmaker: BetUS

Competing for a spot in the UEFA Nations League semifinals, European giants Italy and Germany will face off at San Siro on Thursday in the first leg of their quarterfinal showdown.

Germany progressed unbeaten to finish atop League A Group 3, while Italy secured a runners-up spot behind France in Group 2. Now, the two sides meet again for the first time since their thrilling seven-goal encounter in 2022.

Italy

After a disappointing defense of their European title at Euro 2024, a revamped Italy made a strong start to their latest Nations League campaign but ultimately fell short at home to France, the team they had stunned with a 3-1 victory in Paris.

As a result, the Azzurri settled for second place in Group 2, though it was still enough to secure a spot in the inaugural quarter-final stage of UEFA’s newest international tournament.

With four wins from five before their defeat to Les Bleus in Milan, Luciano Spalletti’s side have clearly benefited from tactical and selection changes, keeping hopes of a first Nations League triumph alive.

Having won Euro 2020 but failed to qualify for the two World Cups surrounding it, Italy’s primary focus remains reaching the 2026 tournament. However, before that, they must take on a familiar rival in a high-stakes clash.

Not only will the winner over two legs advance to the semi-finals, but they will also earn the right to host this summer’s finals. Spalletti’s squad, therefore, will be determined to avenge their last meeting with Germany.

Following a 1-1 draw in the 2021-22 Nations League, La Nazionale suffered a humbling 5-2 defeat in Germany just days later, a result that still lingers nearly three years on.

Team News

Since Italy’s underwhelming Euro 2024 campaign, Spalletti has switched to a three-man defense, making his wing-backs pivotal. The absence of injured Inter Milan wide man Federico Dimarco is, therefore, a major blow.

Andrea Cambiaso, who can operate on either flank, is also a doubt due to ongoing fitness issues, leaving Destiny Udogie and Matteo Ruggeri to compete for Dimarco’s spot on the left.

Along with Ruggeri, Torino midfielder Cesare Casadei could make his senior debut after establishing himself in Serie A following his move from Chelsea, while Juventus’ Manuel Locatelli has been omitted.

Spalletti may be hesitant to field two strikers against such strong opposition, though Matteo Retegui and Moise Kean are enjoying their best Serie A seasons, while Giacomo Raspadori has regained favor at title-chasing Napoli.

Instead, either Nicolo Barella or Davide Frattesi – both playing at their club’s home ground – could be deployed in an advanced midfield role.

Germany

Having already secured top spot in their group with a dominant 7-0 thrashing of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Germany then wrapped up their campaign with a routine 1-1 draw against Hungary.

Unbeaten in six matches since their Euro 2024 exit at the hands of eventual winners Spain, Julian Nagelsmann’s side finished with four wins and two draws, comfortably ahead of second-placed Netherlands.

Averaging three goals per game in this Nations League campaign, Germany enter this tie full of confidence as Nagelsmann takes charge of his 20th match as Nationalelf coach.

Reaching the knockout stage for the first time—after failing to make the finals in their first three attempts—the Germans are eager to add a rare missing trophy to their collection before shifting focus to next year’s World Cup.

Following their trip to Lombardy, the second leg will be played in Dortmund on Sunday, with the winner set to face either Denmark or Portugal in the semi-finals.

Despite dealing with a lengthy injury list, compounded by the post-Euros retirements of several key players, Germany have been among Europe’s most impressive teams this season and will aim to maintain that form.

Team News

Kai Havertz, Benjamin Henrichs, Felix Nmecha, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Marc-Andre ter Stegen, and Bayer Leverkusen’s Florian Wirtz are all absent.

As a result, Leon Goretzka returns to the squad for the first time since November 2023, while Karim Adeyemi has earned a recall following his upturn in form. Mainz 05 midfielder Nadiem Amiri also makes a surprise return after a four-year absence from the national team.

Inter Milan defender Yann Bisseck, who will be on familiar ground at San Siro, has received his first senior call-up, while captain Joshua Kimmich is set to win his 98th cap.

Bisseck is one of only two uncapped players in the squad, alongside Manchester City goalkeeper Stefan Ortega, who will compete with Oliver Baumann and Alexander Nubel for the starting spot in goal.

Conclusion

Against a slightly depleted Germany squad, Italy have a prime opportunity to secure a valuable first-leg advantage, especially with multiple attacking options at their disposal.

The Azzurri are traditionally formidable on home soil, but with a decisive second leg still to come on Sunday, the tie will remain finely poised.

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 17/10

Bookmaker: BetUS