Prediction: Lazio vs Roma

Verdict: Away win

Best odds: 13/8

Bookmaker: Betfair

As they approach the 159th Rome derby in Serie A, both Lazio and Roma find themselves in a position where they need to make up ground in the race for the top four in Italy. With both teams having lost a combined total of nine league games already, dropping more points in the upcoming Sunday fixture at Stadio Olimpico is something neither club can afford as they head into the international break.

The stakes are about as high as the passion and desire for bragging rights in the Eternal City, and the outcome of this derby could significantly impact their standings and aspirations in the Serie A.

Lazio

Lazio’s performance in the Champions League against Feyenoord, when Ciro Immobile’s 200th goal for the club secured a victory in Group E, contrasted with their underwhelming domestic campaign. A 1-0 defeat to Bologna last weekend marked their fifth loss in Serie A this season. If Lazio were to lose in the upcoming Derby della Capitale, they would equal their worst points tally after 12 games since the mid-1990s.

Lazio have struggled to replicate their solid form from last season, failing to secure points from losing positions. The team’s current standing contrasts with their impressive performance in 2022/23, where Ciro Immobile’s goals, the presence of Sergej Milinkovic-Savic in the middle of the park, and a series of clean sheets eventually led them to a distant runner-up finish to Napoli.

Naturally, Maurizio Sarri’s men still have the opportunity to turn things around both in continental competition and in the Serie A standings. They’re one point behind Roma, and a victory in the Derby della Capitale on Sunday would allow them to overtake the city rivals in the standings.

Lazio have a recent history of success against Roma, winning both derbies last season and keeping two clean sheets. However, winning three consecutive league games against Roma without conceding has not been achieved since 2012. Lazio are also unbeaten in their last six Serie A home fixtures against Roma and will play host again this weekend in front of a packed Curva Nord.

Team News

Mattia Zaccagni, who scored Lazio’s winner in their previous meeting with Roma in March, is doubtful for the upcoming clash due to a knee injury suffered against Feyenoord on Tuesday. In the event of his absence, Pedro is expected to start on the left side of attack, alongside Felipe Anderson and captain Ciro Immobile, who has four Rome derby goals in Serie A but none since January 2021.

Sarri is hopeful of better injury news regarding Luis Alberto (muscular) and Adam Marusic (ankle). Lazio’s two extra days of rest compared to Roma could aid their chances of having these two regular starters available.

However, first-choice defender Nicolo Casale is not expected to return until after the international break.

AS Roma

The Rome derby has been historically marked by intensity, and it stands out as the match-up with the highest number of red cards in Serie A over the past three decades. In 38 out of the 58 encounters during this period, at least one player has been sent off at Stadio Olimpico. The most recent clash in March saw Roger Ibanez, Bryan Cristante, and Adam Marusic all receiving red cards.

As Roma head into the game, they cannot afford to lose their composure, especially considering their recent climb up the Serie A table. The addition of loan striker Romelu Lukaku has played a significant role in that resurgence. In their last eight rounds, including the dramatic 2-1 win over Lecce, Roma has accumulated 16 points, a tally that would place them in third position during that period, trailing only Juventus and Inter.

Roma head coach Jose Mourinho, known for his controversial coaching style, has faced questions about his immediate future, but the recent positive results have shifted the narrative. Mourinho will now face Sarri, with whom he has a less favorable head-to-head record, having lost three of four encounters in Serie A. Tension between the two managers escalated when Mourinho compared their trophy hauls and mentioned his “mentality.”

After Roma’s recent loss to Slavia Prague, just two days after Lazio’s win against Feyenoord, the collective mentality of the Giallorossi will face a stern test in the upcoming Derby della Capitale.

Team News

Roma, coming off a recent loss in the Europa League, are expected to make changes to their starting XI for the upcoming derby against Lazio.

Mourinho anticipates the return of captain Lorenzo Pellegrini, who has been sidelined due to injury for several weeks. Although he may not start, Pellegrini is expected to be on the bench after participating in full training. Leonardo Spinazzola is also back in contention, but Chris Smalling remains unavailable due to a lingering knee problem. Midfielder Leandro Paredes, who served a suspension in the previous week’s win over Lecce, is likely to start in midfield.

In the attacking department, Paulo Dybala is expected to partner with Lukaku, who has five goal involvements in his last three league matches against Lazio.

Conclusion

Despite the rivalry between the clubs, as well as the two coaches, neither will want to risk too much with a rash approach. A cautious one is far more likely, and one goal could be enough to settle the contest.

Mourinho’s well-known patience in big games is set to play a part here, and it’s not hard to imagine Roma nicking an extremely narrow win.

Verdict: Away win

Best odds: 13/8

Bookmaker: Betfair