Prediction: Manchester City vs Newcastle

Verdict: Draw

Best odds: 3/1

Bookmaker: ZetBet

Fifth-place Manchester City play host to sixth-place Newcastle in the Premier League on Saturday afternoon at the Etihad, in what should be a very compelling match; both teams have plenty to gain, and plenty to lose.

When the two sides met at St. James’ Park in September, the match ended in a 1-1 draw.

Manchester City

Three days after edging past Leyton Orient in the FA Cup fourth round, Man City endured another painful setback in the Champions League, surrendering a one-goal lead in the final five minutes to suffer a 3-2 home defeat against ruthless holders Real Madrid in Tuesday’s playoff first leg.

While Real are renowned for their late-game heroics on Europe’s grandest stage, City have developed an unfortunate tendency to crumble in the closing stages. They have now lost five matches in which they led across all competitions this season—matching their total from the previous four campaigns combined.

Costly mistakes proved decisive for Pep Guardiola’s ageing squad, and before turning their attention to next week’s second leg at the Santiago Bernabeu, they must refocus on their increasingly challenging Premier League top-four push. With just 12 wins from 24 league games (D5 L7), their position remains uncertain.

City’s last top-flight outing saw them suffer a heavy 5-1 defeat to Arsenal a fortnight ago, leaving them fifth, 18 points adrift of leaders Liverpool, two behind fourth-placed Chelsea, and level with sixth-placed Newcastle on both points and goal difference.

However, City supporters can take heart from their dominant record against Newcastle, having lost just one of their last 34 league meetings (W27 D6) and winning their last 15 home encounters with the Magpies. Only three teams in top-flight history have recorded longer home winning streaks against a single opponent: Everton vs. Fulham (22 from 1961–2018), Aston Villa vs. Sheffield United (16 from 1903–1921), and Man United vs. Luton (16 from 1955–present).

Team News

City face injury concerns over Jack Grealish and Manuel Akanji, both of whom picked up muscle issues in midweek and are now major doubts. Oscar Bobb and Nico Gonzalez will also undergo assessments, while Rodri remains sidelined with a long-term injury.

Akanji’s absence, after starting at right-back against Real Madrid, could see Guardiola turn to either Rico Lewis or Matheus Nunes on the right side of defence. Meanwhile, Nathan Ake may be fit to start after featuring for an hour on his return from injury on Tuesday.

Guardiola must decide whether to keep John Stones in midfield or introduce one or two of Gonzalez (if available), Mateo Kovacic, Ilkay Gundogan, or Bernardo Silva. On the flanks, the recently recovered Jeremy Doku, along with Savinho, Omar Marmoush, and Phil Foden, will all compete for starting spots.

Newcastle

Newcastle have not tasted Premier League victory away at Man City since a 1-0 win in September 2000, back when the Citizens played at Maine Road. Since then, the Magpies have endured a dismal 20-game winless streak on the road (D2 L18) and have failed to score in any of their last five visits to the Etihad.

However, they head to the blue half of Manchester on Saturday in fine away form, having won each of their last four league matches on the road—including impressive victories over Man United (2-0), Tottenham (2-1), and Arsenal (2-0). The last time they won five consecutive away league games was in October 1994, the only instance in their Premier League history.

Newcastle extended their winning away streak across all competitions to six after edging League One leaders Birmingham City 3-2 in the FA Cup fourth round last weekend, with Joe Willock netting a brace and Callum Wilson also on target.

That victory at St Andrew’s came just days after they secured a place in next month’s EFL Cup final, convincingly defeating Arsenal 4-0 over two legs in the semi-finals. While ending their 70-year trophy drought remains a key objective for Eddie Howe’s side, securing Champions League qualification is equally high on the agenda.

Their top-four hopes will be seriously tested in the coming weeks, with clashes against Man City, Nottingham Forest, and Liverpool up next, followed by meetings with Aston Villa, Chelsea, and Arsenal before the season’s end. However, having already taken 11 points from encounters with these six teams, Newcastle should welcome the challenge of these high-stakes fixtures.

Team News

Jamaal Lascelles (knee) and Harvey Barnes (muscle) remain unavailable, while Anthony Gordon (thigh), Joelinton (knee), Sven Botman (knee), and Dan Burn (groin) are all minor doubts and will undergo late fitness tests before kickoff.

Nick Pope returned to the starting lineup in Newcastle’s last outing, leaving Eddie Howe with a decision on whether to stick with his former first-choice goalkeeper or reinstate Martin Dubravka between the posts.

Fabian Schar, Lewis Hall, Sandro Tonali, Jacob Murphy, and Alexander Isak are all expected to return to the XI after starting on the bench in the FA Cup. Isak, who has netted 10 of his 17 Premier League goals away from home this season, will be eager to break his Etihad duck, having failed to score in three previous visits.

Conclusion

Newcastle’s away record against Man City is best left unmentioned, but there are reasons for optimism ahead of Saturday’s clash. This fixture presents one of their best opportunities in recent years to claim a result against a mentally and physically vulnerable City side.

Both teams are likely to get on the scoresheet—especially the hosts, who have netted in each of their last 32 Premier League meetings with Newcastle. However, Guardiola’s men may find it difficult to assert dominance against a well-drilled and disciplined Magpies outfit, making a score draw a real possibility.

Verdict: Draw

Best odds: 3/1

Bookmaker: ZetBet