Prediction: Montenegro vs England

6th October 2011

Montenegro may be hosting the biggest opponent yet in Podgorica, but there is every chance that Branko Brnovic’s side will sacrifice this game in order to fully prepare for the crucial Euro 2012 qualifier in Switzerland on Tuesday. England, on the other hand, need just one point to qualify for the final tournament and Fabio Capello is expected to field his strongest line-up.

Having shown a lot of potential in their first ever World Cup qualifying campaign, Montenegro were seen as one of the teams that could upset the odds in Group G of Euro 2012 qualifiers. The Falcons were nothing short of impressive at the start of the campaign, beating Wales, Bulgaria and Switzerland before holding on to a goalless draw at Wembley. However, instead of building on the great run of results, Montenegro picked up just one point from what should have been two easy games against Bulgaria and Wales, putting themselves in a very difficult position. While the Falcons can still win the first place in the group, provided they beat England and home and Switzerland away, the more likely scenario is that they will need one point from the final group game regardless of what happens against England, and that is why new coach Branko Brnovic has hinted that he will rest several important players in this clash. With no less than eight first team players just one yellow card away from suspension, the gaffer is likely to field an under strength side in Podgorica.

After encountering unexpected difficulties in the past few qualifying campaigns, England have done pretty well in the Euro 2012 qualifiers, as witnessed by the fact that they are on the verge of securing a place at the final tournament. The Three Lions have made a couple of slip ups at Wembley, sharing spoils with Montenegro and Switzerland, but their form on the travels gives Fabio Capello a lot of reason for optimism, with comfortable away wins over Switzerland, Wales and Bulgaria already in the bag. While England would qualify even with one point from Podgorica, the visitors are highly unlikely to play it for a draw, but are rather expected to profit from their superior quality and beat what should be an under strength Montenegro side. Steven Gerrard and Rio Ferdinand did not make the squad despite recovering from injury, but Darren Bent returns to the fold.

Conclusion

Montenegro boss Branko Brnovic has already hinted that he will field an under strength side in this match and that should help England record a win in Podgorica and thus ensure the first place in the group. The Three Lions would be considered favourites even if the Falcons were to line up in the strongest possible formation, but there are no doubts that the latest circumstances will make their job a whole lot easier.

Verdict: Away win England (2)

Best Odds: 8/11

Bookmaker: Paddy Power