Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain vs Atletico Madrid

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 5/7

Bookmaker: Olympusbet

Both falling short of expectations in the Champions League so far, Paris Saint-Germain and Atletico Madrid will face off at Parc des Princes on Wednesday.

Though PSG and Atleti have never clashed before, their coaches are well-acquainted rivals: Luis Enrique and Diego Simeone have met 14 times on the sidelines, with Enrique securing nine victories compared to Simeone’s three.

Paris Saint-Germain

Paris Saint-Germain started their latest Champions League campaign with a narrow 1-0 win over newcomers Girona but have since earned just one point from the following two games.

After a 2-0 defeat at Arsenal, the French champions managed a 1-1 home draw against PSV Eindhoven, with Achraf Hakimi’s 55th-minute equalizer marking the 12th of PSG’s last 14 Champions League goals scored in the second half.

Luis Enrique will thus urge his team to intensify their efforts early on, as his Champions League record since joining PSG has been subpar. He has won only six of 15 matches in Europe, with his 40% win rate being the lowest for any PSG manager with at least 10 Champions League games.

Currently three points outside the top eight, PSG can’t afford further setbacks on Wednesday.

Domestically, however, PSG remain unbeaten at the top of Ligue 1, following a 1-0 win over Lens on Saturday, courtesy of Ousmane Dembele’s early goal.

Before that, PSG clinched a 3-0 victory over 10-man Marseille in Le Classique and have won eight of their first 10 league games, with only one Ligue 1 loss this year, making them especially formidable at home.

Team News

Luis Enrique made notable changes over the weekend, benching regular goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma for Matvei Safonov and reintroducing Marco Asensio into the lineup.

Asensio’s return ended the trial of Ousmane Dembele as a false nine, meaning Dembele should resume his role on the right wing. Bradley Barcola, who recently netted his eighth Ligue 1 goal of the season, will also play in the attack.

Meanwhile, striker Goncalo Ramos remains out due to an ankle injury from August, alongside Presnel Kimpembe (Achilles) and former Atletico youth player Lucas Hernandez (ACL).

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid will be the 10th Spanish team Paris Saint-Germain face in European competition, while Atletico had been unbeaten in four Champions League games against French teams until last month.

Simeone’s side lost 3-1 at home to Lille, marking their second consecutive defeat in this year’s group stage after struggling to convert chances and getting caught on the counter.

Their campaign started positively with a 2-1 home win over Leipzig, but they suffered a heavy 4-0 loss to Benfica before again coming up short against Lille.

Atletico have only recorded three consecutive losses once before in the Champions League, a streak Simeone is determined to avoid in Paris, where his tactics will face a tough test.

Their only away win in their last 10 Champions League outings was a 3-1 victory at Feyenoord last season; otherwise, they have lost seven during that period, signaling that their cautious style is no longer effective away from Madrid.

Although Atletico have progressed to the knockout stage in nine of their last 11 campaigns, they now sit just outside the top 24, needing to improve to secure at least a playoff spot.

In La Liga, however, results have been more favorable. The team defeated Las Palmas 2-0 on Sunday, with goals from Giuliano Simeone and Alexander Sorloth, moving them up to third in the standings.

Team News

Atletico’s attack may again feature Giuliano Simeone, but Antoine Griezmann, Angel Correa, and Alexander Sorloth are all competing for starting spots as well.

In addition, Julian Alvarez – Atleti’s high-profile signing – has contributed to 13 goals across 20 Champions League appearances, despite averaging only 50 minutes per game. However, his away form has been less productive, with just one goal and one assist in eight away matches.

Robin Le Normand (head), Marcos Llorente (thigh), and Cesar Azpilicueta (calf) are all sidelined, while Thomas Lemar remains doubtful. Pablo Barrios returned to action on Sunday, starting after a brief muscle injury layoff.

Conclusion

In a battle between youth and experience, PSG’s young guns should prevail, as Atletico Madrid are enduring an identity crisis and rarely produce their best on the road.

Only Inter Milan have fielded an older average lineup than Atleti this season, and they are clearly a declining force.

Verdict: Home win

Best odds: 5/7

Bookmaker: Olympusbet

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Veselin Trajkovic


Vesko is a football writer that likes to observe the game for what it is, focusing on teams, players and their roles, formations, tactics, rather than stats. He follows the English Premier League closely, Liverpool FC in particular. His articles have been published on seven different football blogs.

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