Prediction: Real Madrid vs Barcelona

17th January 2012

Real Madrid emerged victorious when the two sides met in the Copa del Rey final last term, and they could be forgiven for feeling optimistic before this clash considering the five-point advantage over their rivals in La Liga. However, it was Barcelona who won the last El Clasico at the Bernabeu, meaning the Catalans, too, enter this quarter-final first leg with high hopes.

Having spent last few years trailing Barcelona in every major competition, Real Madrid can be happy that they are finally doing better than the Catalans. Los Blancos may have lost the league clash against their bitter rivals, but, nevertheless, managed to create a five-point cushion at the top, which clearly gives them a psychological advantage over their opponents. Jose Mourinho’s side were also much more convincing than Barca in the Champions League, and they can now put a real pressure on the Catalans with a victory in Copa del Rey. The hosts are now on a seven-match winning run, but that obviously means nothing when a side like Barcelona are on the other side. Mourinho is now sweating over the fitness of Angel Di Maria, who is unlikely to recover in time, but seeing that it was Jose Callejon who scored the winner against Mallorca at the weekend, Di Maria’s absence need not be such a loss. Ricardo Carvalho and Sami Khedira remain sidelined, whereas Alvaro Arbeloa misses out through suspension.

Barcelona have clearly suffered a dip in form compared to their performances last season, and with Real Madrid absolutely relentless on domestic stage, the Catalans are struggling to defend their supremacy in Spain. As we have already mentioned, Pep Guardiola’s side are already five points behind their rivals in La Liga, and even though they are unlikely to give up the fight for the league title, Copa del Rey clearly presents the better opportunity to win a major trophy. Having already beaten Real at Santiago Bernabeu this season, Barcelona players are probably feeling optimistic before El Clasico, although they will certainly have to improve at the back after Real Betis scored two goals and missed a host of clear-cut chances at Camp Nou. Dani Alves and Gerard Pique return to the side after being rested against Real Betis, but David Villa, Ibrahim Afellay and Andreu Fontas are out on the sidelines, whereas Seydou Keita is away on Africa Cup of Nations duty.

Conclusion

Last few El Clasicos have produced quite a few goals, so there are no reasons why that would not happen again. Both Real Madrid and Barcelona want to create an advantage before the return leg, and that is why I see both teams to score as the best option here. The odds are nothing special, but I, nonetheless, see a value in this bet.

Verdict: Both teams to score

Best Odds: 8/13

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes