Verdict: Home win
Best odds: 171/100
Bookmaker: ZetBet
In a highly anticipated rematch of last year’s memorable Champions League semifinal, Real Madrid and Manchester City, the latter being the current holders of the trophy, meet once again. The clash takes place in Tuesday’s quarterfinal first leg at the Santiago Bernabeu.
Nearly a year ago, Pep Guardiola’s side dominated the 14-time winners, securing a 5-1 aggregate victory over two legs to advance to the final. The encounter in the Spanish capital ended in a deadlock before City’s emphatic triumph at the Etihad Stadium.
Real Madrid
By now accustomed to intense knockout encounters with their opponents from Manchester, Real Madrid are eager to rectify last year’s embarrassing defeat at the Etihad. The impressive form of Carlo Ancelotti’s Blancos suggests that Tuesday’s hosts have the potential to snatch the crown from the Sky Blues’ grasp.
Following their Copa del Rey disappointment against Atletico Madrid in mid-January, the La Liga leaders have embarked on a remarkable 13-match unbeaten streak across all competitions. This includes a slightly unconvincing two-legged victory over RB Leipzig in the Champions League round of 16.
A 1-0 away win was followed by a 1-1 draw at the Bernabeu in the second leg, securing Real Madrid’s passage to the quarterfinals for the fourth consecutive season. Remarkably, it has been 20 years since Real Madrid were last eliminated from the Champions League at this stage.
Having won their last 11 Champions League quarterfinal ties since their defeat to Monaco in 2003/04, Real enter the clash with Manchester City on the back of a three-game winning streak in La Liga. They scored a total of 10 goals against Celta Vigo, Osasuna, and Athletic Bilbao.
Following a nine-day break since their comfortable 2-0 victory over Athletic Bilbao, which maintained their eight-point lead over Barcelona at the top of the table, Los Blancos aim to extend their remarkable unbeaten home streak. Their last home defeat dates back to April 2023, a run of 26 matches, and their goal will be to head to Manchester for the second leg with a lead to defend rather than to chase the game.
Team News
With Eder Militao back in Carlo Ancelotti’s squad following a devastating ACL injury, Real Madrid’s injury list now only includes Thibaut Courtois and David Alaba, who are sidelined with serious knee issues too. Dani Ceballos has resumed training with the group after a period of individual training last week.
Militao made just his second appearance of the season as a late substitute against Athletic Bilbao at the end of March. However, considering he was only brought on deep into injury time, Ancelotti may opt to hold off on reintroducing the Brazilian into the starting lineup just yet.
On the other hand, Militao’s compatriot Vinicius Junior, who missed his side’s most recent La Liga encounter due to suspension, is now eligible to play again. Therefore, Brahim Diaz is likely to drop to the bench against his former club.
Manchester City
Willi Orban’s inconsequential equalizer for RB Leipzig marks the only goal conceded by Real Madrid in their last five home matches across all competitions. However, reigning champions Manchester City arrive in the Spanish capital showcasing their attacking prowess on the road throughout 2024.
After flawlessly navigating the group stage, Manchester City effortlessly dispatched Danish champions Copenhagen in the round of 16 with two 3-1 victories, highlighting their ability to consistently score three goals in each of their eight Champions League matches so far in the 2023-24 season.
Since their 1-1 draw at the Bernabeu last year, City have not failed to win in the Champions League, boasting the second-longest winning streak in the competition’s history at 10 matches. Their unbeaten run in the tournament extends to an impressive 21 matches since their 3-1 loss to Real Madrid in 2022.
With a 4-2 victory over Crystal Palace in their recent Premier League fixture, courtesy of a Kevin De Bruyne masterclass, Pep Guardiola’s side continues to challenge Arsenal and Liverpool for the title. The former Barcelona head coach and his men arrive at the Bernabeu having avoided defeat in their last 25 matches across all competitions, winning 11 of their last 12 away games.
Moreover, City’s 10-match winning streak in the Champions League began with a 4-0 home victory over Real Madrid last May. Despite Real winning just one of their last six encounters with the reigning champions, only one of their five clashes at the Bernabeu has seen the Spaniards on the losing side. However, the clash between the two managers with the most wins in Champions League history is anticipated to be intense.
Team News
City defenders have faced a string of injuries in recent weeks, with Josko Gvardiol the latest to pick up a problem during their Premier League victory over Crystal Palace. However, his injury is considered minor, and he has traveled with the squad.
Kyle Walker, who has been dealing with a hamstring issue, has been ruled out by Manchester City’s medical staff for the first leg. Nathan Ake has been left out as well.
Even if Gvardiol is unable to pass a late fitness test, Manuel Akanji demonstrated his capability at left-back during the second half against Palace. Guardiola is likely to have confidence in starting the Switzerland international on Tuesday. Additionally, Ederson, Bernardo Silva and Phil Foden, who have recovered from their respective injuries, are expected to return to the starting lineup.
Conclusion
At the moment, despite their excellent run of results in all competitions, Manchester City don’t look quite as good as they can be with the amount of quality in their ranks, the inspired De Bruyne aside, obviously. They did beat Palace in their previous match, but the fact that they conceded twice to the 14th-placed team in the Premier League will be a worry.
On the other hand, Real Madrid looked like a proper top-level side in their recent games, and at the moment, they just might be good enough to get one over their formidable opponents.
Verdict: Home win
Best odds: 171/100
Bookmaker: ZetBet
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