Prediction: Salernitana vs AC Milan

Verdict: Total away goals over 2.5

Best odds: 87/100

Bookmaker: ZetBet

AC Milan are set to visit the Stadio Arechi for their last match before Christmas on Friday, facing off against Salernitana, who currently sit at the bottom of the Serie A table.

This fixture marks a notable reunion as Salernitana head coach Filippo Inzaghi faces the club where he spent a significant, highly successful portion of his playing career, and also had a brief stint as a manager.

Salernitana

Inzaghi’s emotional ties and nostalgic moments will have to take a back seat as he faces the club where he had an illustrious 11-year career, claiming Serie A and the Champions League titles twice.

Despite his revered history, Inzaghi’s managerial tenure during Milan’s turbulent period saw the club struggle, finishing 10th in the 2014/15 season.

Currently at the helm of Salernitana, Inzaghi faces a daunting challenge, with his team being strong contenders for relegation this season. Since assuming charge, his team has secured only five points in eight games, leaving them three points adrift at the bottom and five away from safety.

Salernitana’s task of survival seems steep, given that historically only two clubs have managed to escape relegation with a similar points tally at this stage. However, Salernitana themselves were part of that rare feat under Davide Nicola’s miraculous survival in the 2021/22 season.

Addressing a slow start is imperative for Inzaghi if Salernitana aim to reverse their current fortunes. They have often found themselves trailing at halftime, in 10 out of 16 games this season.

Sitting at the bottom of the table, Salernitana’s defensive struggles are apparent, holding the unwanted record for the league’s worst defensive performance, having gone 19 Serie A matches without a clean sheet.

Facing an AC Milan side in top form, capable of challenging the league’s runaway top two, will indeed be a challenging task for Salernitana.

Team News

Inzaghi will have an almost full squad at his disposal for the upcoming match. Defender Federico Fazio returns from suspension after being sent off while on the bench during their previous loss against Bologna.

The only injury problem for the hosts is Mexican goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa, who is sidelined due to a shoulder problem sustained while on international duty last month.

Inzaghi made a tactical switch to a four-at-the-back formation in the match against Atalanta. Despite a 4-1 loss, Salernitana had a promising start and even led at halftime. Consequently, Inzaghi is likely to maintain this formation for the upcoming game, indicating that Matteo Lovato might remain on standby.

AC Milan

Milan currently sit five points behind second-placed Juventus and eight points adrift of city rivals Inter Milan at the top of the league table. Despite this, Stefano Pioli’s men maintain a comfortable five-point cushion within the top four, suggesting strong prospects for securing Champions League football next season. Their elimination in the group stage last week despite a victory over Newcastle United was a disappointing setback, even if the group was considered the most difficult of all.

Milan’s prowess in the attacking third has been a standout feature this season, evident in their recent impressive win over Monza, where they secured three goals. Only city rivals Inter have scored more league goals than the Rossoneri this season.

However, Pioli’s side has faced disappointing defeats, notably losing at home to Udinese, which remains their only win of the season so far. Additionally, their defeat against Borussia Dortmund at San Siro was a notable failure, which obviously cost them a place in the Champions League knockout stage.

Their recent away performances have also been lacklustre, with a draw against Lecce followed by a late defeat against Atalanta in Bergamo.

Salernitana have proven to be a challenging opponent for Milan, with the Rossoneri winning only twice in four meetings since Salernitana’s promotion. Furthermore, the seven-time European champions will have another hard task to deal with before the year is over.

The upcoming match against Sassuolo at home next week marks Milan’s final challenge in 2023. Notably, Sassuolo have won on their last three visits to San Siro, implying that Milan must reverse their recent poor form in the upcoming fixtures to maintain pressure on Inter Milan and Juventus at the top of the table.

Team News

Tommaso Pobega’s injury adds to Milan’s growing list of concerns, as the midfielder suffered a hamstring injury during the clash against Monza and was substituted in the first half. However, his replacement, debutant Jan-Carlo Simic, made an immediate impact by scoring Milan’s second goal just 17 minutes after coming on.

Noah Okafor is sidelined due to a hamstring problem, while Malick Thiaw and Pierre Kalulu are absent from the defensive lineup.

Yunus Musah is expected to make a return from illness and is likely to take his place in Milan’s midfield alongside Tijjani Reijnders and Ruben Loftus-Cheek.

On another positive note, captain Davide Calabria is set to return from suspension following his sending off in the match against Atalanta.

Conclusion

Milan’s potent attacking force is expected to exploit Salernitana’s vulnerable defense, potentially leading to a comfortable victory for the second consecutive week.

While Inzaghi’s tactical adjustments showed promise against Atalanta initially, the superior quality of their opponents ultimately prevailed. It’s likely that a similar scenario could unfold in this upcoming fixture as well, where Milan’s strength may overpower Salernitana.

Verdict: Total away goals over 2.5

Best odds: 87/100

Bookmaker: ZetBet