Prediction: Sao Paulo vs Gremio

Verdict: Sao Paulo win

Best odds: 17/25

Bookmaker: ZetBet

Looking to close the gap towards leaders Palmeiras, Sau Paolo will host Gremio. The match will be held at Estadio Do MorumBIS, where the local team lost only a pair of games in Brazil’s top flight this term. With over 70, 000 local fans in the stands, Sao Paulo is set to edge Gremio.

Sao Paulo

Despite a slow start to the season with Sao Paulo failing to record a win in the first two rounds, the hosts recoveredred quickly to end their bitter performances against Fortaleza and Flamengo. Although the home defeat to Fortaleza left a sour taste, surrendering away to Flamengo was somehow expected.

Yet, Sao Paulo’s slow start was quickly turned around after the players finally adapted to Luis Zubeldia’s tactics by inserting complete dominance in the game played at Athletico GO (0-3 final score). The Sovereign took an early lead in the first half and finished the job with a pair of goals scored in the second term leading to a statement win that made Sao Paulo a title contender.

However, going from seven games undefeated to losing consecutive games indicates the hosts’ lack of consistency. Still, despite this rollercoaster journey, Sao Paulo is 6th in the standings six points behind leaders Palmeiras, a set-up that points to a tight championship battle.

Displaying dominance at Estadio Do MorumBIS, the Faith Team surrendered twice in front of their fans in Serie A, surprisingly giving away 3 points to Cuiaba (0-1) since the earlier Flamengo defeat. While Luis Zubeldia’s team was expected to defeat relegation-scrappers Cuiaba, a goal conceded late in the game was enough to leave the pitch empty-handed.

Sao Paulo proved to be an unpredictable team this time, recovering greatly with four consecutive wins after a previous shock defeat at Vasco da Gama (4-1). An excellent run with maximum points from four rounds was ended last week by Atletico MG who narrowly edged The Sovereign (2-1 final score).

Team News

Pablo Maia is recovering from a terrible hamstring injury that ruled him out since 22 April this year. Although the Brazilian centre midfielder is close to making a full return, he will not be available to face Gremio, leaving coach Luis Zubeldia with limited options in the midfield.

Gremio

From Copa Libertadores winners and Serie A champions to a relegation position, Gremio’s fall in Brazilian football is evident. Recording three wins since the start of the season indicates another disappointing campaign the visitors are embarking on. While opening Serie A with two wins gave a deja vu feeling of a former glorious past, the visitors had a sudden reality check.

A busy schedule with matches against top opponents saw Gremio lose five consecutive games during three weeks. Although surrendering to title contenders Flamengo and Botafogo was expected, the visitors disappointed their fans by falling short against Fortaleza and Internacional.

If playing in front of their fans returned better results (W3D1L4), Gremio failed on the road where they needed to settle with a single point from six games played. This dropped the visitors four points from safety with a single win in the last 10 rounds.

Although Renato Gaucho’s team conceded at least a goal in all but a single Serie A match, the upfront issues give the experienced Brazilian boss more headaches after witnessing his strikers missing the target on many occasions to record 7 goals in 8 rounds. The Gremio fall culminated with two defeats in the latest games without finding the back of the net (a 3-0 away loss at Juventude and a 2-0 home defeat to Cruzeiro).

Furthermore, the visitors have been unsuccessful lately at Estadio Do MorumBIS recording the last win more than a decade ago (2013), a feat that looks unlikely to change on Thursday.

Team News

Renato Gaucho’s team faces an injury crisis with many key players unavailable to make the Sao Paolo trip. Former Chelsea ace, Diego Costa is out with a hamstring injury since the beginning of the season. Gremio’s recent poor upfront displays are due to having key figures sidelined.

Right winger Jhonata Robert, centre forward Andre Henrique and attacking midfielder Franco Cristaldo are all out and will not play against Sao Paolo. While Renato Gaucho replaced the missing guns, the quality diminished significantly with only 3 goals scored in the last seven rounds.

Key factors to consider

• Sao Paulo won 5 of their 8 games played at Estadio Do MorumBIS
• The hosts ended an excellent run of 4 consecutive wins in Serie A with a defeat at Atletico MG (2-1)
• The visitors are in free fall losing seven of their last 10 games played in the championship
• Gremio suffered two defeats without scoring in the recent two Serie A games

Conclusion

While Sao Paulo is in 5th gear, Gremio faces a major injury crisis. Although the visitors are expected to put up a fight, the hosts’ recent displays indicate a win for Luis Zubeldia’s team.

Verdict: Sao Paulo win

Best odds: 17/25

Bookmaker: ZetBet