Verdict: Over 2.5 goals scored – yes
Best Odds: 11/8
Bookmaker: 888sport
Things couldn’t be tighter in La Liga after the first 11 weeks of action, as there are just three points of separation between the first-placed team, FC Barcelona, and the sixth-placed team, Real Sociedad. With that in mind, this context between Atletico Madrid and Sevilla could have quite an impact in the standings, at least for a short period of time. The potential winner here could move to the top of the standings depending on what happens with Barcelona, Real Madrid and Granada over the weekend. Kick-off for this match has been slated at 17:30 GMT.
Sevilla
Los Nervionenses have been playing in a good run of form in recent weeks, and they enter this contest on a three-game undefeated streak (W2, D1) while losing just once over their last five Liga matches (W3, D1, L1). To make things even better, Sevilla know they would move to the top of the standings if they can get the three points here. They shouldn’t be extremely confident, however, as their lack of goalscoring power has hurt them at times. Among the top ten sides in the standings through the first 11 matches, only three teams have scored fewer goals than Sevilla’s 14. The Andalucia side, however, has netted seven of those 14 across their last five Liga matches. That 1.4 goal-per-game average isn’t very high, but is a silver lining if we consider Sevilla’s attacking struggles of late. Sevilla sit in fifth place of the standings with 20 points (W6, D2, L3).
Team News
Sevilla are close to full strength entering this game.
The lone doubtful player is defender Daniel Carrico, who has been dealing with a foot injury in recent weeks.
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid have been very good of late, although that shouldn’t be surprising considering how dominant they have looked at the domestic level over the past decade. This time, Atletico enter this game in fourth place of the standings with 20 points, but they have lost just one game over that span (W5, D5, L1). That defensive ability shouldn’t surprise anyone that follows Diego Simeone’s team on a semi-regular basis, as the Argentinian tactician has been known for his defensive skills as a head coach. For what is worth, Atletico also have the best defence in the league with only six goals conceded. But their attack has been a problem, since they have scored only 11 goals to date. Only five teams have scored fewer goals than Atletico, and all of them sit in 15th place of the standings or lower.
Team News
Atletico Madrid could be heavily depleted on defence ahead of this game. Jose Maria Gimenez (thigh), Sime Vrsaljko (knee) and Stefan Savic (muscle) have been ruled out. Joao Felix (ankle) won’t be playing either.
To make things more complicated, Bruno Garces is dealing with a knee injury. The youngster has been listed as questionable, but his chances of playing are extremely slim.
Key Factors to Consider
- Four of Sevilla’s last five matches have witnessed just one side scoring either way. The same thing has happened in three of Atletico’s last five not to end goalless.
- The last five H2H meetings have seen both teams scoring. Three of the last five H2H matches have had over 2.5 goals scored.
- Sevilla enter this game on a five-game winning run at home in competitive matches. Over that same span, Atletico have posted a W2, D2, L1 mark away from home.
- Each of Atletico Madrid’s last five matches has ended with under 2.5 goals scored. Only two of Sevilla’s last five home games has produced at least three total goals.
Conclusion
Four of the last seven H2H matches have finished with at least three goals scored, and both sides have scored in each of the last five.
The latter stat should boost the chance of another high-scoring affair. Therefore, we can expect that goalscoring trend to continue here.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals scored – yes
Best Odds: 11/8
Bookmaker: 888sport
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