Verdict: Draw
Best odds: 34/15
Bookmaker: BetUS
With a tightly contested finish approaching, Slovenia and Norway find themselves in a three-way tie for the lead in League B Group 3, setting the stage for a crucial matchup in Ljubljana on Thursday. Both teams are vying for promotion to League A, UEFA Nations League’s top tier, where only the group winner will advance.
A victory for either side would be a significant step toward clinching the top spot, but the final decision won’t come until the last matchday. As both teams prepare for this decisive encounter, they’ll be focused on claiming an edge in what promises to be an intense battle.
Slovenia
With Slovenia, Norway, and Austria now tied atop Group 3, every point matters as they approach the final Nations League matchdays. Slovenia, bolstered by Benjamin Sesko’s recent form, managed a critical 1-0 win over Kazakhstan last month, propelling them into this three-way tie.
In their last encounter, however, they struggled against Norway, falling 3-0 under Erling Haaland’s dominance. Now, Slovenia must face them at home in Ljubljana, with promotion to League A or a playoff spot on the line.
Only a top-two finish secures advancement opportunities, while third place means a potential relegation playoff under the league’s new format.
Team News
Slovenia captain Jan Oblak will the squad for their crucial clash with Norway, supported by Udinese’s Jaka Bijol at center-back. Midfielder Sandi Lovric also returns after missing the previous fixtures due to injury, adding depth to Slovenia’s central options.
RB Leipzig’s in-form striker Benjamin Sesko, who has 11 goals this season, is set to lead the attack alongside Andraz Sporar, with experienced forward Josip Ilicic likely to start on the bench.
Norway
Erling Haaland, already a legend in Norway, will approach this week’s match with fond memories of scoring twice against Slovenia last month—a feat that made him his nation’s all-time top scorer.
The Manchester City striker previously struck a late goal to secure a win over Austria in Oslo, but Norway’s smooth Nations League run took a hit in the 5-1 defeat at Raiffeisen Arena. Despite an equalizer from Alexander Sorloth, Ralf Rangnick’s Austrian team overwhelmed Norway with three quick goals in the second half.
With seven points, Stale Solbakken’s side remains in the race for promotion to League A. However, they’ll be without captain Martin Odegaard, who has returned to Arsenal to manage his fitness after an injury in September.
Team News
Odegaard will miss the Nations League finale, as manager Stale Solbakken confirmed that he wouldn’t be risked despite Odegaard’s recent return to Arsenal’s starting lineup. This puts additional pressure on Haaland, who has scored an impressive 34 goals in 37 appearances for Norway. Haaland is expected to be partnered up front by Alexander Sorloth, who should start ahead of Jorgen Strand Larsen.
In addition to Odegaard, Norway faces several absences: Oscar Bobb, Hugo Vetlesen, Kristoffer Ajer, David Moller Wolfe, and first-choice goalkeeper Orjan Nyland, who recently sustained a serious knee injury, are all unavailable.
Conclusion
Norway convincingly defeated Slovenia in their previous encounter, but their recent heavy loss to Austria, along with a long list of defensive absences, may hinder their chances in Ljubljana.
Given these challenges, a draw seems likely, keeping both teams tied on eight points and setting up a high-stakes final round on Sunday.
Verdict: Draw
Best odds: 34/15
Bookmaker: BetUS
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