Prediction: Spain vs Georgia

Verdict: Both teams to score

Best odds: 6/4

Bookmaker: 888sport

After navigating contrasting paths in the group stage, Spain and the Euro 2024 underdogs Georgia will clash in a last-16 matchup in Cologne on Sunday evening.

Spain topped Group B with an unblemished record, showcasing their strength by winning all their matches. In contrast, Georgia pulled off a remarkable upset to defeat Portugal, securing their spot in the knockout stage. The two sides now compete for a coveted place in the quarterfinals.

Spain

Securing victories in all three group games of a European Championship for the first time since their era of dominance began in 2008, Spain comfortably advanced to the knockout stages of Euro 2024. With top spot in Group B already assured, Luis de la Fuente took the opportunity to rotate his lineup extensively against Albania on Monday. Despite making 10 changes, La Roja still secured a 1-0 victory, with Ferran Torres finding the net just 13 minutes in, giving them an early lead that they maintained throughout the match.

Spain’s journey to the knockout rounds has been impressive, as they had previously dismantled reigning champions Italy in Gelsenkirchen and cruised past Croatia in Berlin. This marks their fifth consecutive advancement to the knockout stages of a major tournament, and the seventh time in the last eight tournaments.

Deemed one of the tournament favorites, Spain find themselves in the more challenging half of the draw. They potentially face a quarterfinal clash against hosts Germany and a semifinal encounter with France. Under De la Fuente’s rejuvenation, Spain have embraced a more direct style of play, which has yet to see them concede a single goal. The last time they achieved four consecutive clean sheets at a major finals was in 2012, the year they last lifted the European trophy.

Before eyeing further glory, La Roja must surpass their last 16 exit at Qatar 2022, where they were ousted by Morocco. Their initial hurdle is Georgia, against whom they have a strong record, winning six of their seven encounters in all competitions, including an aggregate victory of 10-2 during the qualifiers for this summer’s finals.

Team News

After giving several squad players the chance to shine against Albania, De la Fuente is expected to return to a more familiar lineup for Sunday’s last-16 tie against Georgia. Manchester City midfielder Rodri, available again following a one-match suspension, is set to rejoin the starting eleven along with other regulars.

Centre-back Nacho, who has recently announced his departure from Real Madrid, and Real Betis forward Ayoze Perez are both hopeful of passing late fitness tests after missing the previous match. No new injury issues have surfaced ahead of the game.

Despite Dani Olmo’s strong performance in his first start at Euro 2024 – providing the assist for Ferran Torres’ decisive goal – both Olmo and Torres are unlikely to start on Sunday. Instead, rising stars Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams are expected to return to the attack, providing support to captain Alvaro Morata.

Georgia

The 7-1 defeat against Spain in Tbilisi remains Georgia’s only instance of conceding seven goals in a senior international, marking a low point contrasted by their remarkable journey since then, which has thrust them into the spotlight like never before.

Securing a spot in the knockout stages of their maiden major tournament through a penalty shootout in the play-offs, Willy Sagnol’s spirited team achieved a historic feat with a stunning performance on Wednesday. Facing Portugal in their final Group F match, Georgia capitalized on defensive errors their favoured opponents. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia scored a sensational opener, followed by Georges Mikautadze continuing his impressive run towards the Golden Boot.

Mikautadze, who assisted Kvaratskhelia’s goal, calmly converted a second-half penalty, further sealing their victory and maintaining his involvement in all four of Georgia’s goals at Euro 2024.

Supported by a resilient team effort, goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili’s standout performance was pivotal, echoing his crucial role in their earlier matches against Turkey and Czech Republic.

Statistically, Georgia have faced the most shots (71), the highest number on target (25), and conceded the highest expected goals (xG) among all teams at Euro 2024 hosted by Germany. Nevertheless, Sagnol’s side has embraced their underdog status, having already achieved hero status by overcoming Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal.

Georgia’s solitary win over Spain dates back to a forgotten 2016 friendly, yet following their recent triumph over Portugal, they will be harboring genuine belief in their ability to progress further, potentially securing a place in the quarterfinals.

Team News

Georgia will miss Anzor Mekvabishvili due to suspension, potentially leaving their midfield unchanged from their last match. However, Sagnol might introduce Solomon Kvirkvelia, a two-time Georgian Player of the Year, into the defensive line.

Expected to adopt a 5-3-2 formation, Georgia will be led by Napoli winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Euro 2024’s top scorer Georges Mikautadze up front.

Goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili, who has been with Spanish club Valencia since 2021, has been in outstanding form, saving an impressive 16 out of the last 17 shots he faced during this summer’s tournament.

Conclusion

After their historic night in Gelsenkirchen, Georgia may face a reality check against a fluent Spain side aiming for Euro 2024 glory. While one of Georgia’s potent forwards could likely score again, La Roja seem determined to progress beyond this point and have the ability to unlock even the most disciplined defence.

Verdict: Both teams to score

Best odds: 6/4

Bookmaker: 888sport