Prediction: Spain vs Italy

Verdict: Over 1.5 goals

Best Odds: 4/9

Bookmaker: Dachbet

Two European icons who will be looking to punch their Nations League final ticket on Thursday night, Spain will meet Italy at FC Twente’s De Grolsch Veste.

Spain

Starting with Spain, while La Roja might have opened their winter World Cup adventure with a rampant display as they clinched a 7-0 romp against Costa Rica on November 23rd, that result was nothing more than a minor boost for the former world champions. Crashing out at the Round of 16 stage as they suffered penalties heartbreak against Morocco, it is no secret that Luis de la Fuente has come under a huge amount of scrutiny over the past six months. Likewise, although Spain might have got their European Championships qualifying run underway with a routine 3-0 win against Norway on March 25th, the European giants immediately came crashing back down to earth last time out. Putting in a toothless display as they eventually slumped to a shock 2-0 defeat away in Scotland, La Roja have been desperately seeking some much-needed stability over recent times.

Team News

Despite both lifting a maiden Champions League trophy with Manchester City out in Istanbul last weekend, the duo of Aymeric Laporte and Rodri are expected to play some part here. Clearly cementing his spot as Spain’s number one, Athletic Bilbao goalkeeper Unai Simon will once again start between the sticks in Holland.

Notching 16 La Liga strikes as Espanyol lost their top-flight status this season, Real Madrid target and one-time Newcastle misfit Joselu could spearhead La Roja’s attack on Thursday night.

Italy

As for Italy, while the Azzurri might have stunned many as they were crowned European champions at Wembley two years ago, Roberto Mancini’s men have failed to build off of that success. Stunningly missing out on the chance to punch their World Cup ticket last year as they were hit with that infamous 1-0 loss at the hands of North Macedonia, the former Manchester City boss has endured a rollercoaster time over the past 24 months. Opening their European Championships qualifying adventure with a 2-1 defeat against England back on March 23rd, Italy will be glad to turn their attention back to Nations League duties on Thursday night. However, despite potentially smelling the chance to make a real statement here, it is worth highlighting that Mancini’s side have failed to win any of their last four competitive meetings against La Roja – a run that stems back to June 2016.

Team News

Suffering a knee injury earlier in the year and not making a single appearance since March’s international break, West Ham striker Gianluca Scamacca has not been included in Italy’s squad this month.

Although Lazio talisman Ciro Immobile might not have made a single Nations League appearance last year, the 33-year-old could spearhead Mancini’s charge on Thursday night. Despite suffering Champions League final heartbreak against Manchester City last weekend, Nicolo Barella should start at the heart of Italy’s midfield.

Key Factors to Consider

• When the two European giants last met on Nations League duties back in October 2021, Spain picked up a 2-1 victory.
• La Roja are unbeaten in each of their last four competitive meetings against Italy across all competitions.
• The Azzurri have managed to muster just a single clean sheet from any of their previous four appearances across all competitions.
• However, the reigning European champions have won three of their previous four showdowns on foreign soil.
• Each of the last six meetings between Spain and Italy have seen over 1.5 goals by the final whistle.

Conclusion

While neutrals might be treated to a heavyweight showdown on Thursday night, it is no secret that both Spain and Italy are seeking some much-needed stability over recent times. Watching La Roja eventually suffer a public World Cup nightmare out in Qatar over the winter, the two European icons have also gained a reputation for some rather glaring defensive issues. With both camps mustering just a pair of clean sheets from their previous nine combined appearances across all competitions, chances should fall at both ends of the De Grolsch Veste pitch. It should be noted, with each of the previous six straight meetings between Thursday’s opponents seeing over 1.5 goals by the final whistle, a similar outcome can be found at appealing odds here.

Verdict: Over 1.5 goals

Best Odds: 4/9

Bookmaker: Dachbet