Prediction: Spain vs Poland

Verdict: Total goals over 2.5

Best odds: 17/20

Bookmaker: Betfair

For Spain and Poland, the European Championship continues on Saturday as they take each other on at the Estadio La Cartuja in Seville, in the second round of Group E. 

Sweden beat Slovakia in the other game of the round on Friday, courtesy of a solitary strike from the penalty spot by Emil Forsberg.

Spain

The winners of the tournament in 2008 and 2012, with the 2010 World Cup played in between also in their trophy cabinet, Spain are not exactly where they were back then, quality wise.

Nonetheless, they finished the qualification process topping Group F quite comfortably, five points above second-place Sweden with whom they played a goalless draw in the opening round of the actual tournament.

Their qualifications for the World Cup next year didn’t get of to the best of starts in March; they played a 1-1 draw at home against Greece, but they soon turned the point tally up by beating Georgia away and Kosovo at home. Their pre-Euro friendly games were a goalless draw against defending European champions Portugal and a 4-0 thumping of Lithuania.

Spain completely dominated the match against Sweden on Monday. They held the ball for an amazing 86% of the time, taking 17 shots, but they simply couldn’t find a way to send it into Robin Olsen’s net. The two points dropped might prove costly in the end, but Luis Enrique’s men will look to set the matters right against Poland.

Team News

Enrique won’t be able to call upon the experience of Sergio Busquets, who was kept out of the Sweden game as well through a positive Covid-19 test. The Barcelona midfielder could, however, be back for the final group match, against Slovakia on Wednesday.

Rodri is therefore set to keep his place along with Koke, but Pedri could make way for Liverpool’s Thiago Alcantara this time, and Chelsea captain Cezar Azpilicueta could come in for Marcos Llorente on the right defensive flank.

Poland

It was a difficult start to the tournament for Robert Lewandowski and his teammates as they suffered an unexpected defeat at the hands of Slovakia. Karl Linetty scored an equalizer after an own-goal from goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny, but Inter Milan defender Milan Skriniar struck a second for the Slovaks and settled the match. Much like Spain, Poland need to start firing soon, but the quality of the Spanish team might make them regret losing the first match even more.

Poland finished the qualifications as comfortably as Spain, topping Group G with six points more than second-place Austria, and 11 more than third-place North Macedonia.

Paulo Sousa’s team started their World Cup qualifications with a 3-3 draw away to Hungary, followed by a 3-0 win over minions Andorra and a 2-1 defeat away to England. Preparing for this tournament, they played friendlies with Russia and Iceland, drawing both, 1-1 and 2-2, respectively.

Team News

Grzegor Krychowiak was sent off against Slovakia for a second booking and will sit this one out. Sousa will have to figure out if he wants to replace him straight up by giving Jakub Moder a start, or pull Piotr Zielinski into a deeper role to bring in Karol Swiderski further up.

The rest of the team should remain unchanged from the first match.

Conclusion

Spain are clearly the favorites to win this contest, and even though their forwards misfired seriously against Sweden, they could easily make up for it now.

Verdict: Total goals over 2.5

Best odds: 17/20

Bookmaker: Betfair