Prediction: Turkey vs Croatia

10th November 2011

This is likely to be one of the most interesting ties in the Euro 2012 play-offs, with the match at Turk Telekom Arena expected to bring us plenty of excitement. Neither side have been too impressive in the Euro 2012 qualifiers, but everything will be forgiven if they just manage to make it to the final tournament.

After Turkey finished the 2010 World Cup qualifying campaign in third place in their group, the national team chiefs decided to replace Fatih Terim with Guus Hiddink, hoping that the Dutchman would be able to finally get the team to play to their potential. Turkey started the next qualifying campaign really well, beating Kazakhstan and Belgium in their first two games, but back to back defeats to Germany and Azerbaijan were seen as major setbacks. Guss Hiddink’s side managed to show some improvement in the remainder of the qualifying campaign, with the home win over Azerbaijan ensuring them a place in the play-offs, and they were pretty lucky to have been drawn alongside Croatia, the team that are going through a very rough patch at the moment. Despite their obvious quality in the centre of the park and the creativity of players like Arda Turan, Selcuk Inan and Hamit Altintop, the national team had big problems in the scoring department as Guus Hiddink just couldn’t find a true goalscorer, but those problems appear to be over now that Burak Yilmaz has made the centre forward position his own. The Trabzonspor forward has bagged no less than 13 goals in 8 league games this season and he will certainly give the visiting defence something to worry about in Instanbul.

Not so long ago, Croatia were considered to be one of the best national teams in Europe, with their performances at the Euro 2008 gaining them a lot of admirers from all corners of the globe. However, Slaven Bilic’s side have been on the downtrend ever since they were eliminated from the competition by Turkey and they now face an uphill task against the same opponent. While the squad boasts several world-class players like Luka Modric, Niko Kranjcar and Nikica Jelavic, they lack strength in depth, especially at the back, meaning that the team suffer a great deal when one of the starters is unavailable for selection. Numerous injuries prevented Croatia from gaining momentum during the Euro 2012 qualifiers, and the situation is no better at the moment. Important defender Dejan Lovren and Ivan Strinic have been ruled out through injury, while Vedran Corluka is doubtful with an ankle problem. With Mladen Petric, Niko Kranjcar and Sime Vrsaljko also sidelined, Slaven Bilic faces a major selection headache, which is likely to damage his team’s chances in this clash.

Conclusion

Turkey may have been underperforming at the start to the qualifying campaign, but they have shown a lot of improvement since and they are a real force to be reckoned with in front of their own fans. Croatia, on the other hand, are not only going through a rough patch, but they are also missing quite a few starters, so my advice is to bet on home win.

Verdict: Home win Turkey (1)

Best Odds: 7/5

Bookmaker: William Hill