Premier League managers under pressure: What does the data say about Ten Hag, Martin and O´Neil?

The second international break of the campaign is upon us, and in the Premier League, that usually means one thing.

Sacking season may be drawing closer. Seven games into 2024-25, some managers might already have reason to worry.

While Everton’s Sean Dyche and Leicester City’s Steve Cooper are among those to have eased the pressure with crucial victories in recent weeks, and Oliver Glasner will likely get more time at Crystal Palace, three other bosses are under scrutiny already.

Manchester United’s worst start to any Premier League season after seven games has seen Erik ten Hag come in for heavy criticism, while Wolves and Southampton are yet to record a single victory, meaning Gary O’Neil and Russell Martin could soon come under fire.

But what does the data say about the shortcomings of those sides, and what might lie ahead for each of them? Let’s find out.

How does your team’s start to the season compare? pic.twitter.com/Vy2FtCZR7I

— Premier League (@premierleague) October 8, 2024

Erik ten Hag (Man Utd)

A goalless draw at Aston Villa on Sunday may have stopped the rot for United, but the Red Devils enter the October international break mired in 14th, with just eight points.

They last won fewer points through seven matches of any season in 1989-90, when Alex Ferguson’s men finished 13th in the old First Division.

Ten Hag admitted after Sunday’s game that United’s start was not good enough, though he did hail their organisation and put their struggles down to shortcomings in the final third.

The data certainly supports the idea their main issues are in attack, though the idea Ten Hag has fixed things at the back is seemingly wide of the mark.

Last season, United were continually criticised for giving up opportunities, with only Luton Town (79.77), Sheffield United (77.49), West Ham (72.15) and Burnley (71.92) permitting a higher expected goals against (xGA) figure than their 70.08. Three of those teams were, of course, relegated.

Only six teams have given up better chances than United this term, though a huge 4.59 of their total 11.54 xGA was conceded in one game – the 3-0 home defeat to Spurs on matchday six. With eight goals conceded, Ten Hag’s men may have been fortunate to come up against some wasteful opponents.

At the other end, United have netted just five times – only in 1972-73 (four) have they scored fewer through their first seven matches of a top-flight season.

Their current run of three league games without a goal, meanwhile, has equalled their worst streak in the competition under Ten Hag (runs of three in both December 2023 and April 2023).

United’s five goals have come from 11.11 xG, making them the league’s highest underperformers, scoring 6.11 goals fewer than expected given their quality of chances created. Their shot conversion rate of 5.62%, meanwhile, is worse than all but Southampton (5.26%) and Palace (5.43%), who are both winless.

While Ten Hag’s transitional style of play has been blamed for United’s defensive issues, what can he do to improve their fortunes in attack?

To an extent, he has been let down by individuals underperforming. Captain Bruno Fernandes, whose 54 Premier League goals since arriving in January 2020 are more than any other Red Devils team-mate, has failed to score from chances worth 1.9 xG this term – the highest figure accumulated by any player yet to net in the Premier League.

Alejandro Garnacho (one goal from 2.38 xG) and Joshua Zirkzee (one goal from 2.44 xG) have also underperformed, though it should be acknowledged that an injury to Rasmus Hojlund – who scored 16 times in all competitions last season – has not helped.

Ultimately, though, Ten Hag can have few complaints about United’s predicament. According to Opta’s expected points model, the Red Devils could only expect to be 10th in the table, just 2.4 points better off than they are in reality.

If United stick with the Dutchman, he may need a run of results immediately after the international break, ahead of a festive fixture list featuring trips to Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool.

Brentford and West Ham are their next two league opponents, before Chelsea visit Old Trafford on November 3. A Europa League clash with Fenerbahce – and former United boss Jose Mourinho – will bring more intrigue on October 24.

The Opta supercomputer shows little faith in Ten Hag’s ability to turn things around. United were assigned an 18.8% chance of a top-four finish, which has now dropped to just 2.5%.

Russell Martin (Southampton)

Promoted as play-off victors following their victory over Leeds United at Wembley in May, Southampton were expected by many to struggle on their return to the top flight.

But a return of just one point from seven matches will still be viewed as disappointing, particularly given they have already welcomed the likes of Ipswich Town and Nottingham Forest to St Mary’s.

Across this season and the 2022-23 campaign, Saints are now winless in 20 Premier League matches, equalling their longest such streak in the top flight (also 20 between August and December 1969).

Supporters have, quite simply, grown weary of losing matches. And while Martin’s progressive, possession-based style might be easy on the eye, results are king when battling to remain in the Premier League, and patience is a virtue.

The chief criticism that Vincent Kompany received during Burnley’s relegation campaign in 2023-24 was one of naivety, and it has not taken long for Martin’s Saints to get similar treatment.

Their average possession share of 57.42% is enough to rank them fifth in the league, behind only Manchester City (63.47%), Tottenham (62.44%), Liverpool (60.25%) and Brighton (58.5%).

However, it has too often been a case of possession without punch, with Southampton’s four goals scored being the fewest in the division. Their xG underperformance of -4.34, meanwhile, is the second-worst in the league, behind United’s.

Missing chances has not been Southampton’s only issue, with their 165 touches in the opposition box being the sixth-fewest in the league, despite their 5,117 total touches being the fourth-most.

Another major criticism of Martin’s side, who look to build from the back at every opportunity, relates to their tendency to put themselves in trouble. They have made the most errors leading to goals (six) and shots (10) in the league this season.

Southampton’s opponents, meanwhile, have forced turnovers through pressures in the final third on 81 occasions. Only Brentford, Chelsea (both 91) and United (82) have given up more.

The chances of Martin ditching his masterplan appear slim, but greater pragmatism and flexibility may be required if Southampton are to give themselves a chance of survival.

Martin’s achievement in getting Southampton back to the Premier League – and the manner in which he did it – will likely mean he gets more time. But their next game, at home to fellow promoted side Leicester on October 19, is a big one, while they also face fellow strugglers Everton and Wolves before mid-November.

In the Opta supercomputer’s season predictions, Southampton are now relegated in a huge 90.8% of scenarios, finishing bottom in 59.1%. No other team has more than a 14.8% chance of propping up the table.

Gary O’Neil (Wolves)

Perhaps one of the biggest surprises of the season to date is Wolves’ position at the foot of the pile, after they threatened a European push in O’Neil’s first campaign at the helm.

An incredibly difficult fixture list has played its part, with Wolves facing five of last season’s top seven – Arsenal, Chelsea, Newcastle United, Aston Villa and Liverpool – in the first seven matchweeks, and Manchester City are their next assignment after the hiatus.

However, Wolves are a side that has developed a habit of losing games, only managing one victory – against since-relegated Luton – in 17 league games since March 9 (three draws, 13 defeats).

Their tally of 21 goals conceded, meanwhile, is six more than any other side in the division (Southampton are next with 15).

The decision to sell captain Max Kilman to West Ham without investing any of the £40million proceeds on a new centre-back looked ill-advised in pre-season, and downright neglectful when Colombia international Yerson Mosquera suffered what is likely to be a season-ending knee injury in a 3-1 loss at Villa.

Wolves have arguably been unfortunate at times, with their xGA figure of 14 being lower than those of Ipswich (15.7), Leicester (14.91) and Southampton (14.05). August’s 6-2 defeat to Chelsea was a particularly freakish result, with Wolves winning the xG battle 1.96-1.68.

But a failure to do the simple things has repeatedly cost them. A series of poor goals conceded from set-pieces led to dead-ball coach Jack Wilson being sacked just a few months on from his arrival, and the pressure is now on O’Neil to plug the gaps.

A lack of defensive options could hinder him, though. Wolves have just three fit centre-backs in Craig Dawson, Santiago Bueno and Toti Gomes. The club chose to spend a reported £21million on midfielder Andre – a supremely talented but arguably unnecessary buy – rather than a new defensive lynchpin on transfer deadline day.

Fixtures against Man City and Brighton mean things could get worse before they get better, before a crucial run of eight games against Palace, Southampton, Fulham, Bournemouth, Everton, West Ham, Ipswich and Leicester.

Expect O’Neil’s future to be decided by Christmas, one way or another. The Opta supercomputer now gives Wolves a 51.9% chance of being relegated, up from 20.9% in pre-season.

The good news for Wolves fans? The last time they started a top-flight campaign without a win in seven games, in 2003-04, they got up and running at the eighth attempt, beating Man City 1-0.