Premier League MD1: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

The Premier League is back, and it was complete with plenty of thrills and spills on the opening weekend.

Champions Manchester City began their title defence with a relatively routine 2-0 win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, while Liverpool kick-started the Arne Slot era by beating promoted Ipswich Town by the same scoreline.

Manchester United left it late against Fulham, new Brighton boss Fabian Hurzeler enjoyed a fantastic start to his tenure, though that was not the case for Julen Lopetegui at West Ham, and Arsenal were comfortable victors over Wolves.

However, who were the lucky winners and unlucky losers based on the underlying metrics from this weekend’s matches?

With the use of Opta data, let’s find out.

Man City pick up from where they left off! Their unbeaten run in the Premier League is now 24 matches #TheKickOff pic.twitter.com/ZNYVJj7IOc

— Premier League (@premierleague) August 18, 2024

Lucky winners: Aston Villa

Jhon Duran’s cool finish got Villa over the line against West Ham, with Unai Emery’s team clinching a 2-1 win at the London Stadium. The Hammers, who handed debuts to six players during the match, had cancelled out Amadou Onana’s early opener when Lucas Paqueta converted a penalty.

And even though Villa got the job done, they were not exactly defensively solid, with only Ipswich (2.65) registering a higher expected goals against (xGA) than Emery’s team (2.46) this weekend, albeit a large chunk (.78) of that was down to the Hammers’ penalty.

That being said, Villa did face 14 shots, with Tomas Soucek squandering some big chances late on, while having 15 going the other way and accumulating 2.03 xG themselves, so a draw would have perhaps been a fair result.

Lucky winners: Newcastle United

There was plenty of drama at St James’ Park, with Newcastle overcoming Fabian Schar’s dismissal to beat Southampton 1-0.

Southampton created 1.77 xG, with Villa the only team to have won at the weekend while registering a higher xGA than Newcastle.

The Magpies had only three shots – the lowest figure of any team this weekend – and produced just 0.25 xG, but it is the scoreline that matters, with Joelinton’s goal clinching three points.

Unlucky losers: Southampton

Naturally, with Newcastle coming in as a lucky winner, then Southampton classify as an unlucky loser.

Russell Martin’s team love to have the ball, and they capitalised on their numerical advantage by having 77.8% of the possession, registering 649 passes to Newcastle’s 118.

It was certainly not a case of keeping the ball for the sake of it, though. Southampton had 48 touches in Newcastle’s box (going the other way, the hosts had only 14) and made 67 final-third entries, mustering 19 shots. Getting only four of those attempts on target is obviously an issue, but Martin can consider his team unfortunate.

Unlucky losers: Chelsea

Manchester City were comfortable winners at Stamford Bridge, but is there cause for some positivity for Enzo Maresca after his first competitive match in charge?

Chelsea limited City to 0.77 xG from 11 shots (0.07 per attempt), while accumulating 1.01 going the other way from 10 efforts.

Indeed, had Nicolas Jackson not needlessly strayed offside before capitalising on Ederson’s first-half parry to slot home, it might have been a different story for the Blues, so there is some reason to be cheerful.