Premier League MD10: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

We are now 10 games into the Premier League season and the table is beginning to take shape, but that does not mean there is no room for an upset or two.

On Saturday, both Manchester City and Arsenal fell to surprise defeats at Bournemouth and Newcastle United respectively.

It was only the third time since the start of 2017-18 that both of the previous season’s top two teams had lost on the same day in the Premier League, after March 7, 2021 and January 14, 2023.

Pep Guardiola’s champions could have few complaints about the result at the Vitality Stadium, where Andoni Iraola’s Cherries won the expected goals (xG) battle by 2.04 to 1.56.

But which other games featured a lucky winner or an unlucky loser? We delve into the Opta data to find out.

What a weekend of twists and turns

We saw shock defeats, top spot changing hands, and a number of incredible goals. Read about it all as we recount the biggest moments

— Premier League (@premierleague) November 4, 2024

Unlucky losers: Arsenal

The weekend’s action began with Arsenal travelling to St James’ Park to face Newcastle, with Mikel Arteta’s side chasing a victory to move within a point of leaders Liverpool.

However, they succumbed to a 1-0 defeat as Alexander Isak’s early goal proved enough for Newcastle to make it three wins in their last four home league games against Arsenal (one loss).

The Gunners could count themselves unlucky to come away from Tyneside with nothing, however, after limiting Newcastle to a measly 0.53 xG – 0.25 of which came from the chance for Isak’s goal.

Only West Ham, who played half of their defeat to Nottingham Forest with 10 men, created a lower figure across the nine games to take place this weekend, with 0.13 xG.

Arsenal were far from their free-flowing best, though, only recording 10 attempts worth 1.05 xG themselves. They have averaged just 7.4 shots per game in their away Premier League matches this season, with only Brentford (7.5) taking fewer.

Lucky winners: Southampton

Just two teams – Wolves and Ipswich Town – remain without a victory in the Premier League after Southampton finally got off the mark by beating Everton 1-0 at St Mary’s.

Russell Martin’s team accumulated just 0.74 xG to Everton’s 1.56, but Adam Armstrong’s strike five minutes from time handed them a huge three points in their fight for safety.

While Beto, who headed against the crossbar just 25 seconds before Armstrong’s winner, and Jack Harrison spurned great chances for the Toffees, Southampton were also grateful for a late VAR intervention, as the former saw a potential leveller chalked off for a marginal offside call.

It was the first time Everton had failed to score against Southampton in the Premier League since February 2022, bringing their five-match unbeaten run in the competition to a halt.

Unlucky losers: Crystal Palace

Southampton ended the weekend in 19th, above winless Wolves after they were pegged back in a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace at Molineux.

Marc Guehi salvaged a draw for the Eagles, who were without star men Adam Wharton and Eberechi Eze yet arguably still did enough to leave the West Midlands with all three points.

They racked up 19 shots totalling 2.51 xG to their hosts’ 11, which had a total value of 1.51 xG. Palace’s xG figure was the highest in the Premier League this weekend, but they were missing their shooting boots as Ismaila Sarr squandered two glorious chances when they were a goal to the good in the second half.

With both defences struggling, this was only the second Premier League game of the season to be goalless at half-time but see both sides score at least twice in the second half, after Everton 2-3 Bournemouth in August.

There could have been a fifth goal in stoppage time, too, as Jean-Phillipe Mateta saw a potential winner disallowed for a foul on Jose Sa in the build-up. Wolves – and their under-fire head coach Gary O’Neil – arguably got away with one.

Lucky winners: Chelsea

Sunday’s late game saw Chelsea fight back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United at Old Trafford, denying Ruud van Nistelrooy a first Premier League win as the Red Devils’ interim head coach.

Moises Caicedo’s well-taken volley cancelled out Bruno Fernandes’ penalty and Chelsea arguably looked the more likely victors in the second half, but they only generated 1.1 xG from their 12 attempts – and just 0.29 from six after the interval.

United, meanwhile, had chances worth 1.98 xG, though Fernandes’ spot-kick – with an xG value of 0.79 – was a major contributing factor.

Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho squandered decent opportunities for United, though, and incoming boss Ruben Amorim has plenty of work to do with their attackers.

United have scored just nine goals in 10 Premier League games this season – their worst record through 10 matches of any league campaign since 1973-74 (also nine).

Fans of a certain vintage will need no reminder of what happened at the end of that season – United were relegated from the First Division, their fate sealed by club legend Denis Law scoring against them with a nonchalant backheel, while representing rivals Man City.