Premier League MD12: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

Pep Guardiola may have signed a new contract at Manchester City, but there was no turnaround in fortunes for the Premier League champions.

City were humbled 4-0 by Tottenham at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday, losing a fifth straight game in all competitions.

Liverpool capitalised on that result, coming from behind to beat lowly Southampton 3-2 on Sunday and moving eight points clear at the top in the process.

Ruben Amorim made his bow as Manchester United boss in a 1-1 draw with Ipswich Town at Portman Road, while Chelsea and Arsenal are hot on Man City’s heels.

We also saw a managerial departure, with Leicester City parting ways with Steve Cooper after four league matches without a win.

But, who were the unlucky losers, and lucky winners, from the weekend’s Premier League fixtures?

Unlucky losers: Fulham

Man City were not the only team to ship four goals on Saturday, with Fulham also having that unwanted badge of honour following their 4-1 home loss to Wolves.

But while Wolves were excellent on the counter and clinical when their chances came, it is fair to say Fulham were unfortunate to concede four times, given they only gave up 1.3 expected goals against (xGA).

Indeed, Fulham and Wolves both had 10 shots, while both teams also had 23 touches in the opponents’ box.

It was a bad day at the office for Marco Silva, but he can at least take solace that the numbers suggest they were somewhat unfortunate.

Unlucky losers: Bournemouth

Bournemouth were beaten 2-1 by Brighton on Saturday, as the Seagulls held off their south coast rivals despite Carlos Baleba’s red card.

David Brooks pulled one back for Bournemouth late on, as Andoni Iraola’s team fell short of their 1.6 xG.

Brighton, on the other hand, accumulated just 0.9 xG, the third-lowest total of any of the 18 games to have been played across Saturday and Sunday.

Bournemouth had 19 shots but only got five of them on target. Brighton, on the other hand, sent four of their six attempts on target.

Lucky winners: Tottenham

Time for some controversy…

Spurs were brilliant against City, with James Maddison marking his 28th birthday with a first-half double before Pedro Porro and Brennan Johnson got in on the act after the break.

Yet, the metrics suggest Tottenham were fortunate to keep a clean sheet, with City – who had 23 attempts – accumulating 2.1 xG.

That is not to say Spurs were not impressive going the other way. They finished with 2.5 xG from just nine shots, showing they created high-calibre chances.

But should it really have been 4-0? The numbers suggest not, but then again, stats must always be used within context and should not be all we go off.