Premier League MD15: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

Inclement weather forced the postponement of Saturday’s Merseyside derby, but the rest of the Premier League action went ahead this past weekend.

While Arsenal and Manchester City were held to draws at Fulham and Crystal Palace respectively, Chelsea’s fine form continued as they claimed a 4-3 comeback win over Tottenham.

Enzo Maresca’s team are now four points behind Liverpool, who have a game in hand.

Ruben Amorim, meanwhile, suffered his first home defeat as Manchester United boss, as Nottingham Forest won 3-2 at Old Trafford, while there was another big home win for Brentford, who beat Newcastle United 4-2.

Southampton lost to Aston Villa, Bournemouth broke Ipswich Town hearts and Leicester City fought back late on against Brighton. But, which teams were lucky to get the points, and who can consider themselves unfortunate?

11 – This was the 11th time that Tottenham lost a Premier League game after having been 2+ goals ahead – at least four more such defeats than any other side in the competition’s history. Trend. pic.twitter.com/Ur6PmYSPBR

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) December 8, 2024

Here, we use Opta data to find out.

Unlucky losers: Manchester United

It was not a great weekend for Man Utd. On Sunday, news broke that sporting director Dan Ashworth, who the club had pushed hard to bring in, had left his role after just five months at Old Trafford.

That announcement came after United’s loss to Forest on Saturday, though, as Chris Wood’s header – his club-record-setting 25th Premier League goal for the visitors – proved decisive as new Red Devils boss Amorim suffered back-to-back losses.

Bruno Fernandes and Rasmus Hojlund were on target for United, but the defensive frailties that had been evident under Amorim’s predecessor Erik ten Hag, again, came back to bite them.

United finished with an expected goals against (xGA) of just 0.8, yet Forest scored three times. While that suggests the quality of finishing by Nuno Espirito Santo’s team was high (indeed, their xG on target was 1.5), it also hints at a slice of misfortune for Amorim’s men.

Only Brentford and Chelsea (both eight) had more shots on target across the weekend than United (seven), who also hit the woodwork. However, the Red Devils made two errors leading to goals, and at the highest level, you are bound to get punished.

Lucky winners: Fulham

Fulham continue to punch above their weight under Marco Silva, and after taking an early lead against Arsenal, the Cottagers ultimately showed strong resolve to hold on for a 1-1 draw amid plenty of pressure from the Gunners on Sunday.

Bukayo Saka thought he had headed in a late winner at Craven Cottage, only for VAR to spot Gabriel Martinelli had drifted offside before delivering the cross that found the England winger.

While Fulham did not take all three points, a draw in such circumstances will almost certainly feel like a victory for Silva’s side and their supporters. And the metrics suggest they did get somewhat fortunate.

20 – Arsenal have scored 20 goals from set pieces (excluding pens) in the Premier League in 2024; their joint-most in a calendar year in the competition (also 20 in 2009). Perfected. pic.twitter.com/HT0rT3Az7M

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) December 8, 2024

Not to take away from their strong defensive rearguard, but Fulham only accumulated 0.2 xG, the lowest total in the league across the weekend. They also had the fewest shots (two), though they did get both of those on target.

Arsenal’s 2.0 xG, meanwhile, was the fifth-highest total on matchday 15, and Fulham did give up four big chances (defined as an opportunity from which a player would be expected to score), with the Gunners only able to take one of them – when William Saliba turned home their equaliser from point-blank range.

Indeed, Arsenal’s 8.3% shot conversion rate tells its own story. Had Mikel Arteta’s team had their shooting boots on, the result would likely have been much different.

Unlucky losers: Tottenham

Ange Postecoglou is getting a fair bit of scrutiny at the moment, with his swashbuckling style of play coming under fire from both fans and pundits.

Yet Spurs actually mustered a slightly higher xG (2.9) than Chelsea (2.8) in their 4-3 loss on Sunday.

Sure, it is a bad look that Tottenham gave up a 2-0 lead to go down 4-2 before Son Heung-min grabbed another in stoppage time, but the Blues did get two penalties.

Without those spot-kicks, Chelsea’s xG was 1.25, so Spurs’ defence did perhaps not give up the quality of opportunities that one might expect for a team that had shipped four goals.

That being said, they did concede 17 shots, with only three teams across the weekend allowing more, and there is no doubt Postecoglou has to find a way to tighten up at the back.