Premier League MD2: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

We’re into the swing of the new Premier League season, with matchday two bringing plenty more thrills and spills.

Big wins for Chelsea and Manchester City were accompanied by hat-tricks for Noni Madueke and Erling Haaland, while Everton’s miserable start to 2024-25 continued as they were thrashed 4-0 at Tottenham.

But who were the lucky winners and the unlucky losers to emerge from this weekend’s set of fixtures, according to the underlying metrics?

With the help of Opta data, let’s find out.

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Lucky winners: Chelsea

While Chelsea’s thumping 6-2 win at Wolves was the most emphatic victory of a goal-laden matchday, perhaps fortune smiled on the Blues as they got off the mark under Enzo Maresca.

Chelsea’s six goals came from an expected goals (xG) figure of just 1.68, with the Blues giving up chances worth 1.96 xG at the other end.

Madueke was joined on the scoresheet by Nicolas Jackson, Cole Palmer and Joao Felix as Maresca became the first manager in Premier League history to see his team score six goals in his first away game at the helm.

Unlucky losers: Wolves

It might be a tad generous to suggest Wolves were unfortunate after shipping six goals on home soil, four of them coming in a miserable second half as they attempted to chase the game.

However, it is certainly fair to say the scoreline did not tell the full story of a game in which Gary O’Neil’s men managed 12 shots to Chelsea’s 14 and bettered the Blues’ 21 touches in the area, registering 25.

Chelsea’s xG overperformance of 4.31 is the largest of the season by some margin, with Brighton and Spurs both outdoing their underlying figures by 1.57 in their victories over Everton.

No team managed a bigger overperformance than that throughout the entirety of last season, either, with Newcastle’s eight goals from 3.92 xG versus Sheffield United the closest any team got.

Lucky winners: Arsenal

Chelsea’s win at Molineux was one of just two games in the Premier League on matchday two where the victors lost the xG battle.

But on a weekend where justice was largely done, Arsenal could perhaps count themselves fortunate to leave Aston Villa with a 2-0 victory.

The Gunners accumulated just 0.87 xG to Villa’s 1.28, but goals from Leandro Trossard and Thomas Partey maintained their 100% start to the season.

This is the third time they have won their first two matches of a top-flight campaign without conceding a goal, having previously done so in 1924-25 and 1971-72.

Unlucky losers: Aston Villa

Villa were a lucky winner on matchday one as they escaped the London Stadium with a 2-1 victory over West Ham, but there was to be no repeat against Arsenal.

Unai Emery’s team only hit the target with three of their 11 shots, and striker Ollie Watkins was particularly wasteful as he failed to net from two efforts worth 0.87 xG.

That is the second-highest figure registered by a player who failed to score in a Premier League match this season, after Nottingham Forest’s Nikola Milenkovic versus Southampton on Saturday (0.98 xG).