Premier League MD20: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

A new year is under way, but there was little movement in the Premier League table as the second half of the season got started this past weekend.

Arsenal missed the chance to move within three points of leaders Liverpool after their stalemate with Brighton, but the gap at the top did not extend as Manchester United held the Reds to a 2-2 draw on Sunday.

Chelsea, meanwhile, missed the chance to move up to third as their recent slump continued, dropping points in a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace, while another team in trouble, Tottenham, gave up a lead in their defeat to Newcastle United.

Manchester City, meanwhile, registered back-to-back wins for the first time since October, but Brentford were the big winners, as they registered their first away win of the season with a 5-0 thumping of struggling Southampton.

But, which teams were lucky to get the points, and who can consider themselves unfortunate? Here, we use Opta data to find out.

Lucky winners: Arsenal

Arsenal had gained back some ground at the top of the table, with three back-to-back wins over the festive period putting them right back in the mix in the title race.

However, despite a positive start on the south coast that saw them take an early lead, the Gunners could not hold on as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Brighton and have now failed to win four of their last nine Premier League games when leading at half-time.

Ethan Nwaneri was a bright spark for them in the first half, becoming just the sixth player to score more than one Premier League goal before turning 18, but given their quiet second half, they can maybe count themselves lucky to have not left empty-handed.

Arsenal created chances worth 0.88 expected goals (xG), the fourth-lowest total across the weekend, accumulating just 0.29 of that in a second half that saw them have just one shot on target.

Brighton, on the other hand, finished wi1.52 xG, stepping up their performance and scoring with one of their two ‘big’ chances (defined as an opportunity from which a player would be expected to score) after the break.

The Seagulls have now drawn their last four matches, so maybe this result was not too much of a surprise in the end.

Unlucky losers: Fulham

Now, Fulham did not technically lose – in fact, they fought from behind twice to earn a 2-2 draw with Ipswich Town – but given the metrics, Marco Silva will feel his team could have won on Sunday.

Sam Szmodics gave Ipswich a first-half lead before a dramatic second period at Craven Cottage, in which three penalties were scored.

Liam Delap’s spot-kick was sandwiched in between two from Raul Jimenez, who scored Fulham’s second equaliser in the 91st minute, but Silva was left furious after the game due to certain decisions he felt did not go Fulham’s way.

2 – After Fulham’s 69th-minute penalty and Ipswich’s 71st, this is the shortest gap between two penalty goals in a single half of a Premier League game since Opta have exact goal times in the competition (from 2006-07). Blink. pic.twitter.com/ua9HubxtHU

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) January 5, 2025

The Cottagers dominated possession and had 15 shots, more than double Ipswich’s tally, while only three teams across the league bettered their 2.24 xG, though Jimenez’s spot-kicks inflate that.

However, Fulham’s 13.3% shot conversion rate perhaps tells a different story. It compares poorly to Ipswich’s 28.6%, so maybe Silva’s team could even be counted as lucky to claim a point.

Unlucky losers: Liverpool

This one is another draw, and though Liverpool did not lose, they dropped more points, missing the chance to move nine points clear at the top of the table with a game in hand.

The Reds were strong favourites against a United side that had not won in four games, and that is without looking at their dismal record at Anfield, where the Red Devils had not scored in the league since 2018.

However, Amad Diallo’s 80th-minute equaliser salvaged Ruben Amorim’s side a point, with Liverpool unable to capitalise on their strong form despite their chances.

Only Brentford (4.46) bettered Liverpool’s 2.82 xG over the weekend, with the Reds also having four big chances, though only Mohamed Salah, from the penalty spot, took his. A big chance is defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a player would be anticipated to score.

Liverpool’s unbeaten streak still goes on though, and they can count themselves slightly lucky that Harry Maguire did not bury his gilt-edged chance in the dying seconds to end that run.